Tuesday, August 31, 2010

The Expected Future Deterioration in Ireland

Writes Roubini Global Economics' Jennifer Kapila:

The Emerald Isle is sinking under the weight of consistently bad news as escalating costs of Anglo Irish’s bad loans precipitated the European Commission's third emergency capital authorization. The next hurdle is September‘s immense refinancing schedule of roughly €26 billion for the largest three banks and Irish Nationwide. Clearly, the Irish condition is no longer just a bad situation in stasis but is deteriorating and should call into question the current forecasts of capital requirements of other eurozone banks.
Also from RGE:
Data suggest that U.S. growth in H2 2010 will disappoint further than even our originally bearish projections suggested. As a result, our Macro team revised their numbers downward, resulting in a lower-than-expected S&P forecast.

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