Hi James,At 8:21, (three minutes later!), I received this four paragraph analysis from James:
The Erick Jackson in the clip says Facebook will disappear in 5 to 8 years. Any quick thoughts on his view? I would love to run a paragraph or two from you on it.
Eric is a smart guy and a friend and has been a great analyst on a lot of stocks (Yahoo, for instance, he called perfectly).
But Facebook I think is too entrenched. It's not a MySpace which capped out around 100mm users and was mostly US. FB has One billion users, users in every country, and the particular dynamics of advertising on Facebook are unlike any other medium. Let's say you advertise (i.e. spend money) on FB to get a "fan" for your company's fan page. Now you can market to that person for the rest of his life FOR FREE, as opposed to any other medium where you have to spend more money to keep the engagement potentially going.
Then there's facebook credits, payment systems, games, mobile, etc. And imagine when they start monetizing the Like button through an AdSense type ad network. And finallly, imagine when they start building a realtime search engine. There's too much potential that hasn't been used and (unlike Yahoo when Eric was analyzing it), the FB management team is smart enough to make these things happen and succeed.
Also, very important to note: average minutes per month per user on Facebook is more than the next five websites (including Google, Yahoo, etc) COMBINED TIMES TWO. So engagement on Facebook is off the charts better than any other website in territory. We are in uncharted territory. And it's going to stay that way.
UPDATE James emails:
Interesting. There was a comment on twitter but I'm not going to correct. He says that "LIke" pages are complaining because they have to pay to reach their users now.
This is not correct.
When you post to facebook, on average 16% of your audience will see that post. Some of that depends on what facebook calls your "edgerank" which is similar to google's pagerank.
After three hours, depending on your edge rank, your post is gone from the timelines of almost all of your facebook fans.
Paying will force the content to last longer and go on more of your fans timelines. So its an additional ad unit that Facebook JUST rolled out a few days ago and it only increases the benefits of having fans.
A comparison might be CNBC on brokerage floors. Its almost always on mute. Imagine if an advertiser can pay to un-mute a TV. That's what this ad unit is.