I write in today's EPJ Daily Alert:
I Will Be Surprised If the Fed Doesn't Raise Rates Tomorrow
I really don't want to declare this a 100% certainty, but a rate hike by the Fed is extremely likely. This (surprise) puts me in the minority. Says Reuters:
The U.S. Federal Reserve will hold fire a bit longer on its first interest rate rise in nearly a decade, according to a little over half of economists in a Reuters poll who only last week narrowly predicted the Fed will pull the trigger on Thursday.
The survey of 80 economists based in North America and Europe was taken over the last 24 hours as each panelist was asked to reconfirm if they still held the same position, while a few who couldn't be reached last week were also polled... the number of economists predicting no change in rates [is] now outnumbering those betting on a hike by 45 to 35. Among primary dealers, 12 banks expect the Fed to hold and the remaining 10 expect a hike.
As I have already pointed out in the ALERT, the numbers the Fed is watching most closely have all flashed rate hike.
Further, whether the Fed raises rates tomorrow, I expect multiple future rate hikes beginning in 2016. I discuss why and how to prepare for the economic climate I see ahead in the EPJ Daily Alert.