Peter now thinks a December Fed rrate hike is a possibility but says:
Well there’s two possibilities, right? One is that the Fed does in fact raise interest rates in December, and the other is that they don’t.... let’s take the first scenario, which I still believe to be the less likely of the two.My view on this is the exact opposite. It is that a rate hike by the FOMC in December is the most likely scenario, barring a major market disruption, such as the Chinese mini-market crash before the September FOMC meeting, or a surprise major negative piece of economic data. If we don't get either I expect the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in December.
I discuss more in the EPJ Daily Alert.