Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Fed Funds Futures: 80% Chance of Fed Rate Hike

The probability that the Federal Reserve will hike rates in two weeks is just under 80% right now based on futures market trading, according to MarketWatch.

Okay guys, where are all of you that were so confident just weeks ago that the Fed was bluffing?

Leave your comments below the post.



  1. You don't think some internet trolls will actually admit they were wrong do you?

  2. As I said before, I've put my money where my mouth is and taken a market position that Fed governors will not raise rates because it makes more sense for their personal interests (prestige and paychecks) not to.

    Not raising rates and continuing to jawbone that prosperity-is-neigh is safer for their hides than raising rates then getting forced to lower them again in 2016 after this malinvested, strained, tortured economy gasps in response while heavily leveraged financial bubbles threaten to collapse and the public and politicians start to scream for them to "do something."

    Having said that, ivory tower types in over their heads, with too much power, feeling pressure from all sides, who have no idea what they are doing sometimes try really stupid things. So we shall see.

  3. I still need to see it before I believe it BUT if they do there will be pain and then whining and then lowering again (with QE4 coming to a theater near you). At least that is my guess but I never claimed to be an expert at anything.

  4. As I've said before, I don't think they'll actually raise rates, but if they do, it will be a desperate attempt to maintain the pretense of institutional credibility and will have calamitous consequences for the US economy and government finances over the short to medium term.

  5. Will "rasing" the rate to 25 from a range of 0 to 25 count as a raise?

    1. That's not what is going to occur. If there is a rate hike, the target range will be raised on both sides of the current range by 25 basis points to 0.25% to 0.50%.

  6. Funny, wasn't that same statistic in the 90s some time ago. To me, it seems the flies are starting to drop, Robert. If the FED rate hike was getting closer to happening, shouldn't this percent be closer to 99% as opposed to the 80% that you are so giddy over.