Sunday, February 28, 2016

Indications of Surprise by Keynesian Economists in the Strength of the Economy

Citi's Economic Surprise Index has been surging lately.

The Index is a data series that measures how data releases have generally compared to economists’ prior expectations. When data is coming in weaker than expected, it declines; when data is coming in stronger than expected, it rises.




Keynesians just don't understand the business cycle.

-RW

UPDATE

And then we have this:

5 comments:

  1. RW, as I've said, you and Zero Hedge, Stockman, Mish, etc., see very different things going on. As 2016 progresses, someone will be proved right.

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    1. RW is looking at shorter term opportunity in the market- a change in the data or policies or world market could quickly change his domestic economic views.

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  2. Replies
    1. Yes, but they still post some of the most interesting looks inside how broken the system really is. Like most libertarian-minded people, the Tylers understand that the current world macroeconomic stability is illusory and could tank hard in a short time span. The difference is that they think it is imminent, while RW and I (and many others) know that the elite still have some ammunition. It might be their last stockpiles, but that is unknowable at this point.

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    2. I don't think it's wise to assume all or even the most influential of the so-called elite will desire starving off a crash. Some may even want a crash to benefit themselves.

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