Filed for future reference.
An EPJ reader emails:
In this article, traders' "bets" are cited as evidence of rates staying low for the foreseeable future. I used to work at the CBOT as a trade clerk and I believe I understand what is meant by bets. Bets can be changed quickly, so I don't necessarily feel that 5-10 years out these bets will be in place. Rather, as of this point in time 5-10 years out looks like X,Y, Z to these traders. Thanks and take care.Very true. The idea that futures markets are necessarily correct forecasters is absurd. You would never have market crashes if futures markets always foretold the future.
Paul Krugman is actually good on this point: futures markets and betting markets tend to just reflect current opinion.