Thursday, March 10, 2016

New Claims for Unemployment Plunge; Near 4 Decade Low

First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell 18,000 to 259,000 for the week ended March 5,

The reading approached the four-decade low of 255,000. It marked a full year of weekly filings lower than the 300,000 level that is considered consistent with strength in the labor market.

This is not what a recession looks like, nor even the beginning of a recession. Take a look at the chart above, not only is it clear new claims are remarkably low but new claims are also a very good leading indicator. Claims start to climb just before a recession (gray areas) starts


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