Saturday, March 19, 2016

On Donald Trump's Asinine Deportation Progam

I really hope Trump isn't serious about his proposal to deport the 11 million plus illegals. Anyway you look at it, it makes no sense. Doug Holtz-Eakin has worked out some rough numbers. It's pretty insane. Via WSJ:
Donald Trump and Ted Cruz say they’d deport all of the 11.3 million or so undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. They don’t say how they would pull off this forced human exodus. But new research shows that executing on this promise would require at least $400 billion in new federal spending and reduce U.S. GDP by about $1 trillion.

A study released this month by the American Action Forum, a free-market think tank led by economist Doug Holtz-Eakin, walks through the process of evicting 11 million people over two years, a time frame Mr. Trump has floated. The report assumes that about 20% of those here illegally would leave voluntarily once the roundups begin. But that still leaves about nine million to find and deport.

This can’t be done with the snap of one’s fingers. In practice and under the law it requires four steps: finding and apprehending individuals, detaining them while they await due process, moving them through the courts, and then transporting them to their home countries.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement can now remove at most 400,000 undocumented immigrants a year, most of whom are turned over to the feds by local police after, say, a traffic stop. Ramping up that goal to millions would require 90,000 federal agents, up from today’s 4,000, the study finds. That number would be even higher if the feds conduct most of the raids instead of relying on local law enforcement that lacks the resources for mass sweeps.

After the roundups, where would the arrested millions await their hearings? The feds currently operate about 250 detention facilities with 34,000 beds, and a mere 58 immigration courts. The average detention time is 28.7 days. To keep that same detention time, the report says a two-year deportation plan would require some 348,831 beds, as well as more than 1,300 courts and about 30,000 more federal attorneys. The effort would be a full-employment act for lawyers, and no doubt the House Freedom Caucus would be overjoyed to pay for all of those new federal employees.

Then there’s the task of sending migrants back to their native countries. Only about half of the 11.3 million hail from nearby Mexico, so the U.S. would have to fly millions to Central America, Asia and elsewhere. The report found that the effort would demand the departure, on average, of 84 buses and 47 chartered flights every day for two years. Is the Trump 757 available?

The most important cost, however, would be the blow to the economy from disrupting such a huge chunk of the American workforce. About eight million undocumented immigrants are employed in some way, and the report estimates that deporting them all in two years would shrink the U.S. labor force by 6.4%. That’s a lot of suddenly unfilled jobs. The report estimates that GDP would shrink by 5.7%, not far from the 6.3% decline from the 2008 recession. The new Administration would certainly be off to a rip-roaring start.

Defenders of deportation say state and local governments would save tens of millions on social services for illegals, but that would pale next to the economic and human costs. All of this suggests that deportation would be one more campaign promise that fails once it hits the, er, wall of reality.

What is needed is a Welfare Wall that prevents illegals from gaining access to government services. If they are here to work, go to school, or vacation--on their own dime--- what is the problem?

As for the 11 million plus illegals supposedly being mostly criminals. I have lived in large cities for most of my adult life and I can't recall crossing a street once to avoid a single, or a gang of , Latinos that looked like they were up to trouble.

The same can't be said about home-grown urban primitives. All too often I have crossed the street because of urban primitives appearing to be looking for trouble.

Black parents may teach their kids to be careful around coppers, but white parents often teach their kids what to do around urban primitives.

But, getting back to Trump's asinine program. he says he wants to deport them all and process the "good ones" and let them back into the country. That's sounds to me like getting them closer to government handouts. I'd rather have them here as illegals with a Welfare Wall built than "processed" with easier access to taxpayer paid for government handouts..



  1. I've warned everyone I've talked to how bad this idea is. It would grow government force and wreak havoc on the division of labor. It's nuts.

  2. "What is needed is a Welfare Wall that prevents illegals from gaining access to government services."

    You think deportation is hard? A piece of cake compared to your welfare wall.

  3. Yay, more pro invader propaganda.

    A welfare wall is needed no doubt.

    What amuses me the most is the pro invaders actively have blocked invader expulsion for decades and now put out pablum like above that says "well there are just too many invaders and it will cost too much to expel the invader".
    Who cares.
    Invader expulsion should have been done all along and then the expense would be a non issue.

  4. Not sure what larger cities you have lived in, but there are plenty of "latino" gangs in New Mexico where I lived before. Also, having lived in Mexico, there are people from Mexico who come to the US for work. It was a temporary thing to make money to support the family. The illegals I have met here work, but they also take benefits and exploit the the system. As a person who has never taken an unemployment check and always followed the tax laws, it's really offensive that a subset of the population is allowed to not follow the rules the rest of us are following (not just welfare). Why is that so hard for people to understand?
    P.S. Not all the illegals I have known are Hispanic. Half of them are Caucasian Russians.

  5. The more we deport, the more will self-deport. And if we have to change our laws to make sure that people breaking the law to come here illegally cannot game the system by using our "due process" laws, then we should do it. As for it being a "hardship" for them, it cannot be harder than coming illegally to a country where you do not speak the language. Let all of the illegals show us their true moxy by going back where they came from. As for jobs, well we can fill them from current welfare rolls.

  6. This is completely insane. Mass deportation on that scale would require a vast expansion of the police state. Will the "Libertarians for Trump" applaud as SWAT teams raid businesses and private homes en masse while it making it more difficult to travel within state/national borders without state permission?

    The LRC bunch are going off the rails with this Trump farce. Eliminating welfare incentives is the *only* option that doesn't empower the State, and by far the most politically feasible. I'm much more frightened by a militarized gestapo than Mexicans on welfare.

    1. Not necessarily. Deport those who are known to be illegals. Then, deport as they are encountered on routine encounters, like when the bastards wreck your car and have no insurance nor ability to pay the damages.

  7. The "research" is incorrect. Nation wide E-Verify combined with no access to welfare would result in self deportation.

  8. Import the 3rd world and you get the 3rd world.

  9. Can we limit the ability for illegals to send money they earn here back to their home countries? Supposedly most are here to work to support families back home... take away that and many will self-deport.

  10. "The average detention time is 28 days" Detain for no more than 24 hours to give a person fair chance to find a document, then deport. Let them file for appeal from their home country.