Exploding Insider Trading Based on Government Data (Including Federal Reserve Data)
By Paul-Martin Foss
A new ECB white paper has found evidence that many major market-moving data releases in the US are leaked in advance of their official publication, allowing some investors to profit from trading stocks and Treasury securities when those data are released. Included among the data releases studied are two from the Federal Reserve Board, on industrial production and consumer credit. The researchers analyzed price movements in the S&P 500 futures market and the 10-year Treasury Note futures market in the thirty minutes prior to these data releases, assuming that strong price movements in the direction of the eventual post-release price were indicative of some sort of leak. The industrial production release was one of seven releases that was strongly suspected of being leaked. This isn’t good news for the Fed.
The Fed is already grappling with an ongoing probe into a 2012 leak of confidential interest rate information to a financial newsletter. The Fed also provides news organizations with sensitive data which is embargoed until the Fed publishes it, however those embargoes are occasionally breached. Then there are the accidental leaks from the Fed on FOMC matters and the case of the former New York Fed official who obtained confidential information from his former colleagues after he went to work at Goldman Sachs. There have been enough mistakes and leaks that the idea of sensitive information being systematically leaked to certain market participants isn’t far-fetched. Especially because such leaks rarely come to light and almost never result in anyone’s termination, the risks of being caught don’t outweigh the potential benefits of making friends on Wall Street or making a little extra money. At the very least, this study should result in hard questioning surrounding these data releases and the importance placed on them. In particular, the Federal Reserve’s role as a market mover should face scrutiny. Leaking information to profit special interests is all the more reason to end the existence of government agencies that have so much power to move markets.