Friday, June 24, 2016

What Happened in the EPJ Daily Alert Yesterday and Today

Yesterday, before votes on Brexit came in, I wrote in the EPJ Daily Alert:
I strongly believe that if Brexit wins (it does, though, appear to be the underdog), then we will have a massive selloff in stocks globally.

This view is based on my thinking that traders generally view a Brexit win as a terrible outcome for global economies. But at the same time, watching market action, it appears that traders believe that Brexit will go down to defeat.

Therefore, if Brexit wins, you will have traders reversing positions and tremendous fear about economies in the wake of such a win. The selling will be substantial without knowing exactly how much selling will occur.

I just suspect that the panic will be very intense immediately after news of a Brexit victory.

It is possible that British and continental European stock markets could selloff by 10% or more. In the U.S., a selloff of 3% is possible. The greater the selloff, the greater the opportunity but I would buy into the selling regardless of the actual percentage. The selling would be most intense immediately after news of a Brexit victory and that would be when the greatest buying opportunities would be.

If the less likely scenario does develop and Brexit does win,  I would buy a 50% position of funds I designated for the trade immediately on the news and scale in further buying over the remainder of the day.
Tha actual decline on London's FTSE 100 was 8.7% at the start of trading and the market recovered to close off only 3.15%. US markets traded around 3% for most of the day,

Today, I reiterated the aggressive BUY opportunity and sent out an additional ALERT after the close:

My guess is this is probably the end of the downside activity---or very close to it.
Monday's ALERT will be out at the regular time. If there is more downside on the opening in the US (or earlier downside overseas), consider it as an additional buying opportunity.


No comments:

Post a Comment