Thursday, August 18, 2016

U.S. Jobless Claims Fall. AGAIN

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits declined last week.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs across the U.S., decreased by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 262,000 in the week ended Aug. 13, according to the Labor Department.

It was the 76th consecutive week that claims remained below 300,000, the longest such streak since 1970—when the U.S. workforce and population were far smaller.

This is not what a recession looks like. Austrian-lites please take another delusion pill.



  1. Ok Rob, I will take another delusion pill.

    -What about the fact the fed refuses to raise rates, is that what a recession looks like?
    -How about the fact US industrial production fell for the 11th straight month, is that what a recession looks like?
    -How about the recently released Auto Inventory-Sales Ratio that was the worst reading since the recession, is that what a recession looks like?
    -How about the rail transports that are all saying volumes are down, is that what a recession looks like?

    I like your work, but to have such an aggressive opinion on people who believe the economy is getting worse, not booming, is unfounded and you will have a lot of egg on your face.

    1. Good, glad to see you took two delusion pills.

      There are very specific markers of a recession. The items you list are not among them. There are lots of things going on in an economy (up and down) at any one time, but when you have strong employment numbers and strong capital goods markets (e.g. stock market, real estate prices) you do not have indications of a recession.

      But don't worry, we will eventually experience a recession and we will be able to wean you off your pills.

    2. In other words what defines a recession are the measures juiced by the fed and those measures far away from the fed money taps don't count. This essentially allows the experiences of people far from the fed induced boom, who are still in recession-like conditions, to be discounted and ignored. After decades of finding ways to juice the official measures of recession it is becoming clear they are no longer coupled to what a lot of people experience if they ever were.

      Additionally, unemployment rate is a figure of those who have recently lost jobs it and of itself does not define strong employment, it just indicates not many people have been fired recently. If the number of people employed was a stable low number with limited employer dictated turnover for years the unemployment rate would by definition be low. The unemployment rate would also never show where job growth is relative to population growth. By that measure employment strength is below where it was in previous recessions. ( ) Thus Janet Yellen can sit in her tower and say employment is strong but people on the ground can have a vastly different experience in much of the nation.

  2. Don't forget tax receipts YOY approaching zero, trucking and rail traffic down, most forms of capital investment anemic, and so on.

    I'm watching the slow motion train wreck and am incredulous that RW doesn't acknowledge the cognitive dissonance. He reads Acting Man, Stockman, Zero Hedge, Mish, etc.

    RW, are you aware of any other Austrians who are on record that the "boom" hasn't ended or are you the last bull standing.

    1. I have always considered the "Who else is on your side?" the weakest of arguments. I have never personally employed it.

    2. Exactly. The boom will end (and if money supply growth continues to drop, it will be soon) and then the Doom and Gloom will be correct.

      For now, the vast majority in America are doing well due to the Boom.

  3. Hypothetically you could have initial jobless claims at ZERO and still have high unemployment.

    I get RW's Austrian logic that the Fed creates bubbles and recession is what happens when bubbles pop. However, the popping of a bubble is not the only way to experience recession-like conditions.

    The economy is "poor" as measured by high government regulation, volatile political climate, climbing debt, rigged markets, Millennials living at home, low savings, excessive wars, and so on.

    The fact that the stock market is in a Fed created bubble does not actually fix any of these ugly realities.

  4. WOW. So many experts! Can I subscribe to your investment advice anywhere geniouses ?

    How big of a short position do you have on the S&P 500. & How long have you held it?

    Or are there other investment plays I am missing?