tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post3707051898153375157..comments2024-02-13T02:39:22.756-05:00Comments on EconomicPolicyJournal.com: Henry Blodget and Nate Silver Don't Understand the Difference Between Case and Class ProbabilityRobert Wenzelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14296920597416905488noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-6162372315984600312012-11-17T23:20:50.902-05:002012-11-17T23:20:50.902-05:00If the race is under the same conditions, and the ...If the race is under the same conditions, and the same horses, it could fit into a class of "horse races under X conditions".<br /><br />Even if it did not, the odds are based on a willingness to bet, and are not necessarily indicative of an underlying probability.Matt Tanoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02947545760259213385noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-21950432987944404532012-11-07T15:31:12.254-05:002012-11-07T15:31:12.254-05:00Wow. And all I got was a Ph.D.Wow. And all I got was a Ph.D.Scott Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00270655527655803743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-63574144352187373062012-11-06T20:58:34.453-05:002012-11-06T20:58:34.453-05:00ScottO, is it inappropriate to say you gave me a b...ScottO, is it inappropriate to say you gave me a boner? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-43882503851003241962012-11-06T17:08:50.319-05:002012-11-06T17:08:50.319-05:00What about 9:1 odds in a horse race? Surely any g...What about 9:1 odds in a horse race? Surely any given race is a 1-time case. acknowledging that this is a handicapping system, isn't there an implied case probability with real meaning?<br /><br />My apologies for, and please excuse, any imprecise terminology.<br /><br />my point is that odds on a case, contrary to answer (3) above, are not necessarily metaphorical but may have direct Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-30648311554964440132012-11-06T16:34:06.802-05:002012-11-06T16:34:06.802-05:00As we have seen over the years with Krugman, prett...As we have seen over the years with Krugman, pretty much the opposite of whatever he predicts ends up happening, so him saying Obama will win is the best news in a long time for Romney. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-34930350836514285782012-11-06T13:09:50.849-05:002012-11-06T13:09:50.849-05:00Mises is not the final word on the nature and util...Mises is not the final word on the nature and utility of probability. "Subjective" probability is an individual, and well, subjective, expression of an individual regarding the likelihood of an outcome whose value is unknown to that individual. It can be useful when complex events are decomposed into simpler events for which one can more readily assign probabilities and there are Scott Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00270655527655803743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-27373110140410487142012-11-06T12:54:25.868-05:002012-11-06T12:54:25.868-05:00Something going on in the various markets...Dow up...Something going on in the various markets...Dow up 160, gold spiking and eliminating its loss.<br />kitco.com/marketAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-17512101950963261702012-11-06T12:53:22.304-05:002012-11-06T12:53:22.304-05:00Silver and Krugman did successful predict the down...Silver and Krugman did successful predict the downfall of Chick-fil-A though. So, I give them credit for that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-835170107242200822012-11-06T09:22:34.530-05:002012-11-06T09:22:34.530-05:00Odds are, this is going to be a long day, which d...Odds are, this is going to be a long day, which defies both class & case probability, as all days are the same 24 hours.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com