tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post5188047290728287849..comments2024-02-13T02:39:22.756-05:00Comments on EconomicPolicyJournal.com: Jobless Claims Average Hasn’t Been This Low Since Richard NixonRobert Wenzelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14296920597416905488noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-9127299445775337282015-10-06T07:02:16.585-04:002015-10-06T07:02:16.585-04:00Nailed it, Donxon.Nailed it, Donxon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-83515229000276750132015-10-06T06:59:13.486-04:002015-10-06T06:59:13.486-04:00Well said!Well said!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-87150778762196408232015-10-02T17:21:40.113-04:002015-10-02T17:21:40.113-04:00You're forgetting about all the useful things ...You're forgetting about all the useful things that could have been done with the manpower and resources that went into building a new big building. Reread Bastiat's Seen and Unseen essay.<br /><br />Was the building of the pyramids a boom? Does the Eiffel tower actually do anything?<br /><br />Building a new sky scraper that's completed just in time to be half empty may be a boom inDonxonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16480364222848672992noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-59294233623365117962015-10-02T12:50:05.846-04:002015-10-02T12:50:05.846-04:00So are you equating when the tallest buildings are...So are you equating when the tallest buildings are built to burying money in a hole and that there is no boom-bust cycle?Robert Wenzelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14296920597416905488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-19845614693013841852015-10-02T12:45:42.100-04:002015-10-02T12:45:42.100-04:00If the fed were to print a bunch of money and pay ...If the fed were to print a bunch of money and pay half the country to dig wholes and the other half to fill them up, would we call that a boom? Is any of the arbitrary activity spurred on by the fed actually meeting genuine market demands? Would it be a boom if we all sat down and furiously passed monoply money back a forth? We are experiencing the illusion of a boom. The feedback mechanismsDonxonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16480364222848672992noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-67272846371704767982015-10-02T11:52:01.894-04:002015-10-02T11:52:01.894-04:00Mak Muk,
You may be correct. The 23% I referred ...Mak Muk, <br /><br />You may be correct. The 23% I referred to is from Shadow Stats. I'm do not know exactly how Mr. Williams comes up with his unemployment rate but this is what is stated on the link I previously supplied:<br /><br />"The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term AlexZouglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09903419350475485505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-15344443201410327342015-10-02T06:25:58.132-04:002015-10-02T06:25:58.132-04:00The unemployment rate is not 23%. Your number for ...The unemployment rate is not 23%. Your number for "long term discouraged workers" is obviously wrong. The labor department reports that there are 91.7 million not in the labor force which includes 85.3 million who do not want a job. http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea38.htm<br /><br />If you add the 6.3 million who want a job to the labor force, you get an unemployment rate of 8.8%.<Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03199938752782932205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-56625781913446808122015-10-02T02:23:56.482-04:002015-10-02T02:23:56.482-04:00If the laws of markets clearing have been reversed...If the laws of markets clearing have been reversed for workers it is mostly if not all due to government. All the requirements and the laws and those that enforce them being skewed in favor of the employee make it so employers try to keep their employee count to a minimum. Workers compensation claims are an example. Pile on ever increasing minimum wages and the welfare state. <br /><br />Most AlexZouglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09903419350475485505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-1052884163804319942015-10-01T21:45:02.657-04:002015-10-01T21:45:02.657-04:00So what do you think is causing the high "dis...So what do you think is causing the high "discouraged" workers number? Do you think the laws of markets clearing has been reversed for them? Robert Wenzelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14296920597416905488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-43393984487642141702015-10-01T20:42:34.507-04:002015-10-01T20:42:34.507-04:00Here are links to the stats I used:
http://www.bls...Here are links to the stats I used:<br />http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm<br />http://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h1528.html<br />http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts<br />AlexZouglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09903419350475485505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-81795723224155123652015-10-01T20:39:33.712-04:002015-10-01T20:39:33.712-04:00My intensions were not to comment on the business ...My intensions were not to comment on the business cycle but unemployment. Mr. Bartash compares current employment figures to those of the 1970’s. Reading only what was printed in EPJ of Bartash’s article, in my opinion he is not telling the complete story. Sometimes half truths are worse than whole lies.<br /><br />To answer your questions, I would say that if my comments are accurate we are AlexZouglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09903419350475485505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-49936345890001627532015-10-01T19:49:24.017-04:002015-10-01T19:49:24.017-04:00For argument's sake, let's assume that eve...For argument's sake, let's assume that everything you have stated is accurate, what does that have to do with the business cycle?<br /><br />Do you think it is just a bust "cycle"?Robert Wenzelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14296920597416905488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-13812306620965954402015-10-01T19:29:36.003-04:002015-10-01T19:29:36.003-04:00When all unemployed and under-employed are account...When all unemployed and under-employed are accounted for there has been no drop in unemployment since 2007 and the rate has been over 20% since 2009. Even during the Great Depression the unemployment rate exceeded 20% for only four years.<br /><br />Unemployment rates are (almost) always stated using U3. U6, the next most often used rate, is consistently about 5 percentage points higher than U3. AlexZouglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09903419350475485505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-8046465498176089282015-10-01T17:02:49.292-04:002015-10-01T17:02:49.292-04:00"but the view that holds there are no boom ph..."but the view that holds there are no boom phases just doesn't fit the facts."<br /><br />If there was a boom underway, why are credit spreads (high grade liquid bonds versus junk, emerging market debt etc) widening dramatically? The fed may control overnight bank rates, but it cannot manipulate credit spreads. They are dominated by the market. <br /><br />If Robinson Crusoe stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04254728148882930531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-68549510053573358862015-10-01T14:20:03.820-04:002015-10-01T14:20:03.820-04:00I guess I'm having a hard time understanding w...I guess I'm having a hard time understanding what is keeping the whole thing afloat. It's sort of like that "perpetual motion machine" we analyzed in high school science class. We "know" it can't possibly really work, but there it is anyway, chugging away with no end in sight. Are the Keynesians right after all? Unlimited debt, unlimited money printing, and Robert What?https://www.blogger.com/profile/03863449539859132763noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-19090803712010936282015-10-01T13:01:13.756-04:002015-10-01T13:01:13.756-04:00Or alternatively after all these years everyone wh...Or alternatively after all these years everyone who could be let go has been let go driving down initial claims and everyone who couldn't find a job has fallen off the unemployment rolls plus lots of part time low paying work being added instead of 'breadwinner' jobs. That would fit this data plus other data such as median income sagging to 1989 levels. The boom phase is still almost Jimmy Joe Meekerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09559104650594440766noreply@blogger.com