tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post1289728206265852535..comments2024-02-13T02:39:22.756-05:00Comments on EconomicPolicyJournal.com: Bloomberg: U.S. Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Jumped 3.4%Robert Wenzelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14296920597416905488noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-18913015409152258912009-03-26T07:18:00.000-04:002009-03-26T07:18:00.000-04:00@AnonymousDon't be a trend follower. Watch what is...@Anonymous<BR/><BR/>Don't be a trend follower. Watch what is going on. The Fed has pushed enormous amounts of money into the system since late September. That's what is turning the economy. It has nothing to do with long or short periods.<BR/><BR/>Have we hit the bottom in the stock market? Most likely, but you will get killed trying to trade every up and down tick. You have to <I>position </I> Robert Wenzelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12653378186315529211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-15038337195285009172009-03-26T00:36:00.000-04:002009-03-26T00:36:00.000-04:00Could this be a temporary uptick because of invent...Could this be a temporary uptick because of inventory levels falling over the several months. And now those levels are at a point that new orders are opening up ?<BR/><BR/>I cant believe we are seeing recovery so quickly ? <BR/><BR/>Do you think we wont see lower-low in stock market going forward ? did we hit a bottom already ? thanks!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-63465726196728833242009-03-25T16:20:00.000-04:002009-03-25T16:20:00.000-04:00@James RothfeldYou are correct, though I would cal...@James Rothfeld<BR/><BR/>You are correct, though I would call it a "distorted" boom, rather than "illusionary". <BR/><BR/>I try to slip something in, roughly every second or third time, about the "Fed money induced distorted boom that will ultimately lead to inflation" when I talk about the boom, but that is a mouthful to put in every post about the boom. Regular readers know what I mean, and Robert Wenzelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12653378186315529211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-22192454434300842802009-03-25T16:13:00.000-04:002009-03-25T16:13:00.000-04:00@Bob MurphyBob,Here's why I don't think I would ha...@Bob Murphy<BR/><BR/>Bob,<BR/><BR/>Here's why I don't think I would have responded that way. Part of what I am trying to do here at EPJ is teach how to anticipate trends based on Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT). So first if durable goods had dropped, it is unlikely that Bloomberg would have used the word "unexpected". Most journalists, analysts and economists, as you know, are trend Robert Wenzelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12653378186315529211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-30745887959813909692009-03-25T15:52:00.000-04:002009-03-25T15:52:00.000-04:00Maybe you should clarify that you are talking abou...Maybe you should clarify that you are talking about an illusionary recovery fueled by inflation, building up to a new bubble, that will burst even more terribly, pulling us all in much deeper. <BR/><BR/>Or am I misreading?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-63782020461385799652009-03-25T15:39:00.000-04:002009-03-25T15:39:00.000-04:00@hpx83When money supply is contracting you have th...@hpx83<BR/><BR/>When money supply is contracting you have the move away from capital goods towards consumer goods. Now I believe what we are seeing is the first moves back into capital goods because of the incredible money printing of Bernanke since late September.Robert Wenzelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12653378186315529211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-5268787786666546982009-03-25T14:00:00.000-04:002009-03-25T14:00:00.000-04:00Honesty check: Suppose the headline had read: "U....Honesty check: Suppose the headline had read: "U.S. Durable Goods Order Unexpectedly Drop 3.4%." Do you promise us you wouldn't have written:<BR/><BR/>"Those of you reading EPJ saw this coming. I have been saying for months that Austrian business cycle theory shows that during a recession, consumers switch away from higher-order goods--like houses and consumer durables--and into lower-order Bob Murphyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04001108408649311528noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-83199491780736393362009-03-25T11:43:00.000-04:002009-03-25T11:43:00.000-04:00As a frequent reader of your blog, I feel inclined...As a frequent reader of your blog, I feel inclined to ask a question : Doesn't the Austrian Business Cycle Theory predict a decline in the demand for capital goods and an increase in the demand for consumption goods? Or is it me who has it backwards? I suspect that the fact that the US is living on borrowed money may mean that we need to include the rest of the world in order to get a proper viewAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com