tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post7515203200655192958..comments2024-02-13T02:39:22.756-05:00Comments on EconomicPolicyJournal.com: On the Nature of Forecasting Price Inflation and Other Economic EventsRobert Wenzelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14296920597416905488noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-31361638600580277882012-12-31T21:05:17.026-05:002012-12-31T21:05:17.026-05:00You cannot forecast the outcomes of nondeterminist...You cannot forecast the outcomes of nondeterministic models. Don't play this loser's game.<br /><br />The risk models used in the mainstream ignore wealth transfers due to Cantillon effects, and they also ignore the increased risks due to a rigid top-down central planning that is prevented from adapting to new information.<br /><br />Use the above two facts to aid your investing, and don&Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-86223205590543465492012-12-20T09:32:51.033-05:002012-12-20T09:32:51.033-05:00Your posts don't go unnoticed though, and you ...Your posts don't go unnoticed though, and you do a great job helping people understand that distinction. And your last paragraph is sad but too true.1000 Miles Awayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07673593337685531721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-4598888757370407012012-12-20T09:30:46.417-05:002012-12-20T09:30:46.417-05:00Each of those dollars is produced at a point, for ...Each of those dollars is produced at a point, for benefit of the creator of that dollar. The extension that in the aggregate nominal prices must rise does not necessarily correspond, and this is where Walrasians and Friedmanites get into trouble. Rothbard explained well the idea that the movement of those created dollars into the economy is not a smooth process, but a disruption of the relative 1000 Miles Awayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07673593337685531721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-15464102695689985172012-12-19T12:08:30.192-05:002012-12-19T12:08:30.192-05:00In response to tJm:
I agree that much of the disag...In response to tJm:<br />I agree that much of the disagreement comes down, ultimately, to philosophical disagreements which will be (almost?) impossible to bridge. In my thinking, which I outlined here above and in comments to other posts, there is the need for central banks issuing fiat money with the goal of stabilizing output. Many here disagree and apparently see an inherently much less Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-35530664013850303012012-12-18T19:56:35.792-05:002012-12-18T19:56:35.792-05:00The difference in philosophy displayed between you...The difference in philosophy displayed between your two arguments (thoughtful and well-written, both)represents an unbridgeable difference in thinking, it seems.<br /><br />Dale, I think, feels that the resources of a given society can't and shouldn't be top-down planned, by any group no matter how wise or academic, without violating the NAP (sad) and ultimately succumbing to the problem Alaska3636https://www.blogger.com/profile/13251275012030359766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-77106380919734323082012-12-18T14:05:21.721-05:002012-12-18T14:05:21.721-05:00It would seem that Heisenbergs uncertainty princip...It would seem that Heisenbergs uncertainty principle might apply loosely to the problem of economic obeservations and predictions. We can get economic specifics, but only for the past and not for the future. We can tell where an economy is generally headed, but we can only due so at the expense of specifics<br />Will Leachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-73950829846527097752012-12-18T12:16:47.814-05:002012-12-18T12:16:47.814-05:00There are many events taking place right now that ...There are many events taking place right now that are allowing the dislocations to continue, expand, and extend in ways that have never happened before. Never before has a government essentially nationalized the entire mortgage complex (it would be a stretch to call it a 'market' at this point...). Never before has a government essentially nationalized much of the student loan and Robert P. Churchillhttp://www.supplysideforum.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-72408659547339120002012-12-18T12:09:13.304-05:002012-12-18T12:09:13.304-05:00There is a book called "Future Babble" w...There is a book called "Future Babble" worth reading. The main premise is that we, as a people are addicted to someone telling us what will happen in the future so sooth-saying has become a lucrative business. But the more certain someone is about their prediction, the less likely it is to happen (roughly speaking). Most things really can't be predicted with the degree of Dubnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-36677901536149921542012-12-18T10:19:45.390-05:002012-12-18T10:19:45.390-05:00Dale, thank you for your kind response.
I agree w...Dale, thank you for your kind response.<br /><br />I agree with your quote an market irrationality, ironically it is by Keynes.<br /><br />Even though this takes the discussion away a bit from forecasting inflation, I don't accept the need to massively purge the system. It didn't want 2008 to be "the end". I don't want to witness the complete meltdown of the US financial Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-66090976058501763432012-12-17T23:47:38.880-05:002012-12-17T23:47:38.880-05:00It does seem that way, Dale.
He's really hung ...It does seem that way, Dale.<br />He's really hung up on replicating a physical science though,... and then suggesting a dangling thing mixed with children playing as if nothing could go wrong? That was funny.<br /><br />And this was an excellent blog post.<br /><br />- IndividualAudienceMemberAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-69747309782527977862012-12-17T22:32:46.142-05:002012-12-17T22:32:46.142-05:00Great analogy. I think our so called "troll&q...Great analogy. I think our so called "troll" is just someone smart enough to look "behind the curtain" and will wake up to the beautiful and rational nature of Praxeology. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-2760000689872224612012-12-17T22:30:24.072-05:002012-12-17T22:30:24.072-05:00Google "Thymology" and see why specific ...Google "Thymology" and see why specific date forecasts are anathema to Austirans. <br /><br />The markets can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent. <br /><br />2008 should have been the end. If not for extraordinary and unprecedented intervention by the central banks, the entire system would have failed. <br /><br />God willing, the next failure will be too extreme, Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-76642507799576732132012-12-17T22:24:35.661-05:002012-12-17T22:24:35.661-05:00Now, imagine that the domino layer has constantly ...Now, imagine that the domino layer has constantly stopped those dominoes from falling, especially if one of them will knock down 2 or 3 dominoes (you've seen the layout- one domino can knock down a chain starting 3-5-7 more chain effects.) and suddenly he cannot reach out fast enough to stop those three chains. He has seen the first layer fall, even if knocked down halfway, and stopped it andAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-77502504620797606472012-12-17T22:19:41.385-05:002012-12-17T22:19:41.385-05:00Wonderfully thoughtful reply. I've pegged you ...Wonderfully thoughtful reply. I've pegged you as a troll (assuming you are the contrarian on similary posts) but apparently not. <br /><br />RW is positing that by setting up 100 dominoes, the ripple will exist, but be too small to measure. When there are 1,000 dominoes, it will be harder to keep them upright, and easier to measure. With 10,000 dominoes it will be harder still to do all the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-74193743840540417332012-12-17T22:14:59.467-05:002012-12-17T22:14:59.467-05:00Popper was right, in some ways. The actions of 7,0...Popper was right, in some ways. The actions of 7,000 humans, let alone 7B humans, cannot be known beforehand. Therefore models that show what happened before, and why one policy or another failed, or succeeded in examination of future policy is valuable. <br /><br />Good show!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-81656856543922571272012-12-17T21:18:10.516-05:002012-12-17T21:18:10.516-05:00Let's put it this way. money stock is as to p...Let's put it this way. money stock is as to potential energy what money velocity is to kinetic energy.<br />Until demand picks up, "kinetic energy" will remain low.<br />What Peter Schiff is saying is that the federal government's policy is that of a car climbing higher and hire up a steep and windy mountain road at faster and faster speeds. The car is gathering potential Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-17319858959030147172012-12-17T21:02:14.287-05:002012-12-17T21:02:14.287-05:00Second part due to character limit cut off before:...Second part due to character limit cut off before:<br />You state clearly that a "price inflation storm is developing". In your analogy you and many other Austrian economists have been warning about dominoes falling for years. I would like to know what a "price inflation storm" looks like. Is it 5%, 10%, 100%, 1000% "price inflation"? And for me personally, it Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-10963964377320930802012-12-17T21:01:44.318-05:002012-12-17T21:01:44.318-05:00Well thank you for at least providing a post on wh...Well thank you for at least providing a post on why you do not want to be more specific, I appreciate this (without irony). I don't think comments such as "troll", "almost child-like thinking" or "clueless person" are warranted, but ok, I appreciate you taking the time.<br /><br />You can of course, as you know, come up with analogies for anything. Krugman and Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-58784614887458425222012-12-17T20:44:24.122-05:002012-12-17T20:44:24.122-05:00Bob,
In the passage by Mises where you quote come...Bob,<br /><br />In the passage by Mises where you quote comes from Mises states:<br /><br />"Historical experience does not provide facts that could render in the construction of a theoretical science services that could be compared to those which laboratory experiments and observation render to physics."<br /><br />This suggests that to a degree, as far as physics, we can learn from Matt D.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-24875911777892593782012-12-17T20:21:09.893-05:002012-12-17T20:21:09.893-05:00As other commenters have said: Great analogy.As other commenters have said: Great analogy.antiahithophelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07466322552479382069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-61728192593439409722012-12-17T20:03:57.669-05:002012-12-17T20:03:57.669-05:00Yes, pointing out that eventually WILL happen, cet...Yes, pointing out that eventually WILL happen, ceteris paribus, drives them nuts. It's 1+1=2. <br /><br />You cannot continue to print money at a rate higher than the innovation level and expect no inflation. The fact that these guys will be shocked- crazy shocked- when inflation takes off, and interest rates rise just shows how warped their models are. A strong recovery (due to another Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-86412466691500854452012-12-17T19:24:36.102-05:002012-12-17T19:24:36.102-05:00Wow, I really love that analogy. Thank you for th...Wow, I really love that analogy. Thank you for that. It makes it so understandable. I hope you don't mind if it's "borrowed".Mr. GAHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-91370425366137994232012-12-17T19:11:05.505-05:002012-12-17T19:11:05.505-05:00The loathsome, vile, stupid and utterly dishonest ...The loathsome, vile, stupid and utterly dishonest MMTer Mike Norman accused anonymous Austrian commenters of predicting hyper-inflation. <br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ap0c0W7RpGc<br /><br />I pointed out to Norman that I'm basically the only Austrian who ever comments on his stupid blog and I've never predicted imminent hyper-inflation. I also Bob Roddishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17263804608074597937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-39903643813023133262012-12-17T18:52:36.467-05:002012-12-17T18:52:36.467-05:00I would only note that ignorance doth not a troll ...I would only note that ignorance doth not a troll make, and that government education a lot of ignorance doth make.John Howardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3758330678390419129.post-46299157105117401582012-12-17T18:03:58.666-05:002012-12-17T18:03:58.666-05:00Logic says that producing more money would cause t...Logic says that producing more money would cause the price (value) of each unit to decline. That's because of the laws of supply and demand. Yet as Charles Hughes Smith said at Of Two Minds, we don;t really know the demand for US dollars. <br />world trade is much greater after the fall of communism. There is more international specialization and international transactions in most Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com