Wednesday, January 7, 2009

The Demographic Time Bomb

Tim Swanson has sent me an email with a link to a great article by Michael Pakko, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. It is one of the best analysis I have seen of the current debt crisis.

Skip the section he labels Economic Impact of Deficits, where he attempts to justify Keynesian deficit spending, but read twice the section he labels, A Demographic Time Bomb.

He is the first economist, other than of myself, to point out that the Social Security crisis will start around 2017, and not as most comment, 2041.

As I have pointed out, in the year 2017 the SSA stops buying Treasury securities and becomes a net seller. They have been a major prop to the Treasury markets by owning some 24% of Treasury debt. When ths stops and you couple it with incoming medicare obligations, things become a mess real fast.

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