"For me a double-dip is another recession before we've healed from this recession ... The probability of that kind of double-dip is more than 50 percent," Shiller said. "I actually expect it."
I do not consider Shiller a strong economic forecaster nor strong on economic theory. However, because of the home price indexes he puts together, he sees whats in front of him. And given his double-dip talk, what he sees in front of him can't be very good.