Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Tax Prof: ObamaCare Tax Increases Are Double Original Estimate

The Joint Committee on Taxation recently released a 96 page report on the tax provisions associated with Affordable Care Act. The report describes the 21 tax increases included in Obamacare, totaling $1.058 trillion – a steep increase from initial assessment, according to the Tax Prof Blog. The summer 2012 estimate is nearly twice the $569 billion estimate produced at the time of the passage of the law in March 2010.

Provision 
2010 Estimate, 2010-2019, $billion
2012 Estimate, 2013-2022, $billion
0.9% payroll tax on wages and self-employment income and 3.8% t tax on dividends, capital gains, and other investment income for taxpayers earning over $200,000 (singles) / $250,000 (married)
210.2
317.7
“Cadillac tax” on high-cost plans *
32
111
Employer mandate *
52
106
Annual tax on health insurance providers *
60.1
101.7
Individual mandate *
17
55
Annual tax on drug manufacturers/importers *
27
34.2
2.3% excise tax on medical device manufacturers/importers* 
20
29.1
Limit FSAs in cafeteria plans *
13
24
Raise 7.5% AGI floor on medical expense deduction to 10% *
15.2
18.7
Deny eligibility of “black liquor” for cellulosic biofuel producer credit 
23.6
15.5
Codify economic substance doctrine
4.5
5.3
Increase penalty for nonqualified HSA distributions *
1.4
4.5
Impose limitations on the use of HSAs, FSAs, HRAs, and Archer MSAs to purchase over-the-counter medicines *
5.0 
4
Impose fee on insured and self-insured health plans; patient-centered outcomes research trust fund *
2.6
3.8
Eliminate deduction for expenses allocable to Medicare Part D subsidy
4.5
3.1
Impose 10% tax on tanning services *
2.7
1.5
Limit deduction for compensation to officers, employees, directors, and service providers of certain health insurance providers
0.6 
0.8
Modify section 833 treatment of certain health organizations
0.4
0.4
Other Revenue Effects
60.3
222**
Additional requirements for section 501(c)(3) hospitals
Negligible
Negligible
Employer W-2 reporting of value of health benefits
Negligible
Negligible
Total Gross Tax Increase:
569.2
1,058.3
* Provision targets households earning less than $250,000.
** Includes CBO’s $216.0 billion estimate for “Associated Effects of Coverage Provisions on Tax Revenues” and $6.0 billion within CBO’s “Other Revenue Provisions” category that is not otherwise accounted for in the CBO or JCT estimates.
Source: Joint Committee on Taxation Estimates, prepared by Ways and Means Committee Staff




80 comments:

  1. "ObamaCare Tax Increases Are Double Original Estimate"

    I'm shocked, just shocked I tell you.

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    Replies
    1. No, that is not what it says. It says that revenue from tax increases is double. Totally different meaning.

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  2. And who, exactly, did NOT see this coming?

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    1. Who???? Me for one. I thought it would be much more than double

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    2. It will Bud, just wait a little longer.

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    3. It will Bud, just wait a little longer.

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    4. Just wait a few more months until the next estimates come out.

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    5. That's why they needed to pass it to see what was in it. If any rational person had seen ahead of time what was in it, it wouldn't have passed.

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  3. its what conservative economists were telling us all along. no surprise there. In fact I would venture a guess that the estimates still underestimate the real cost to the economy.

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    1. The Dems' goal all along was to say anything necessary to get the votes. Once they have the votes, who cares? Everything after that, what we would call, "being responsible," is for them "Sour grapes," "Monday morning quarterbacking," "Mistakes were made." Jay Carney makes his living doing this.

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  4. But... but... we get free healthcare! Free, I tell you!

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    1. Anyone who ever thought that Obamacare was about health care is an idiot. This was never about your healthcare....NEVER. From its very conception, this was about nothing more than control and money. Obama and Company couldn't care less about your health. They just want to control how you live. I challenge anyone to name for me one thing, just ONE thing, that the government cannot force you to do in the name of "healthcare". Just one little thing!

      It's time for Atlas to shrug.

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    2. I understand your sarcasm......., but you must also know there are millions of voters and non-voters out there who actually believe there is such a thing as "Free Health Care!"

      We are fast running out of other peoples' money, don't you know?

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  5. Low info voters will kill the Golden Goose

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    1. Low info voters killed America.

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    2. Public education created the low info voters that killed America.

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    3. No, public education didn't create the low info voters. Parental involvement is said public education created the low info voters, which has become an enabled, cyclical machine.

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  6. Despite the increased tax burden, OdramaCare will still cost us even more than the increased tax burden, since the cost estimates are wildy understated as well.

    We NEEDED this?? when does govt ever do ANYTHING better or cheaper than the private sector? Seriously.....Repeal this load of garbage.

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    Replies
    1. not goign to get repealed now, or ever. Anyone who's seeking office or is in office will be burned at the stake for trying. The 47% are now the majority.

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  7. Of course they are double. Most likely they will be triple or higher before the Obamanator is finished. You low information Obama voters didn't really think for one tiny little second that Obama was ever telling the truth did you? Per Obama quote: "You haven't seen anything yet!"

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  8. This is just the beginning. These taxes will have to go up again. The ACA has been designed to allow the lowest incomes to get everything free. It means, effectively, that people can do nothing productive all their lives and get every basic need met by one government program or another. Other people will figure out the various thresholds for free help and make sure their income comes in at a level the best fits their situation. The entitlement crowd is not stupid. They know how to maximize the free stuff they get.

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    Replies
    1. oh they can be PRODUCTIVE alright, as in REPRODUCTIVE

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    2. Agree, but I wish we could stop calling this sort of thing an "entitlement" because it isn't. It is a handout, pure and simple.

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    3. Just look what it has done to the English working class. The Dolittles and the Andy Capps have multiplied far beyond expectations, which is why the country is full of Asians. Someone has to do the work that employers can afford.

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    4. I agree. They will not care about your health or care and with some control-our-lives sprinkled on top.
      I see this as a back door to austerity. Forcing the public to pay back the Fed Reserve (banking cartel) back for all the bailouts, government lending, etc.

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  9. Although its aim "so the DEMs say" is for the Rich to pay their "fair share", the overall affects of ObamaCare is going to hit the lower class the hardest. Of course the middle class aren't going to be spared either. Once fully implemented... we will see a huge exodus from the Democrat party. The low information voters will finally realize their leaders are complete liars or morons.

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    Replies
    1. "...The low information voters will finally realize their leaders are complete liars or morons.>>" have to disagree, I point to Detroit as proof.

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  10. I make under $50k and I'll be losing my current plan because it is considered "cadillac". Obama is making sure that good plans can be acquired by the rich.

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    1. Don't be so sure about that one, unless your definition of rich is millions in net worth. Obama's definition of rich, is you buddy. Apparently being a millionaire starts at 200k for individuals and 250 for families. In the eyes of Obama as an anti-colonialist even the poorest American is still wealthier than a villager in say Africa, or India

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  11. I vaguely recall the president claiming it wouldn't cost us a dime in taxes. Merely one lie in a litany of prevarications from our Dear Leader.

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    Replies
    1. But it's not costing us *A* dime. It's costing us several trillion dimes. What a bargain.

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  12. I would expect even these are under-estimates.

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  13. What gripes me is that the House can slay this dragon, but with Bohener in charge won't do it.

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  14. Oh gee, there's a surprise, the Dems were fibbing, not able to calculate, or most likely, both.

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  15. Dr Bob, agreed. I'd like to know one thing - just one! - that the government can do more efficiently than the private sector. And no, I don't mean wring people out for taxes - that's not a private sector function...

    Post Office, Amtrak, SSN, Medicaid/Medicare, SNAP - the list goes on and on; waste, abuse, corruption...and our tax dollars support it. But at least we don't have a spending problem - the White House told us we don't, so I feel better.

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  16. What is needed is rebellion on a massive scale.

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    Replies
    1. hence the 1.2 Billion bullts for the DHS

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    2. We don't need a revolution

      Find an honest person. Send them to Washington. In the meantime, re-elect no one. Ever.

      Problem solved.

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    3. Do not be so naive. These parasites will not stop until they are forced to stop.

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  17. If only it would stay at double..... this article will soon be re-written with the headline "...triple the original estimate"

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  18. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  19. The big lie in this analysis, of course, is that they are comparing two different timeframes.

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  20. Robert

    Congrats on getting a story on Drudge.

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  21. Damn you all who voted for this crook in the White House!

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  22. Not surprising at all. In fact, I'm surprised the "real" figures are only twice the 2010 estimate. Expect the harsh reality to keep getting uglier. A pity so many gullible people believed this administration's lies.

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  23. Only double? Sounds like the Dems didn't do their "bait and switch" job sufficiently.

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  24. The most articulate response to the insanity:

    Hopey-changey
    re-arrangey
    Make sure dogs you eat
    aren't mangey.

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  25. How long will it take for everyone to listen to conservatives. We were saying this all along that his idiotic law would cost way more than was originally announced. You guys are getting EXACTLY what you voted for.

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    1. Clearly you don't read this blog too often. Most of the regulars are anarcho-capitalists or libertarians. I doubt too many people who normally visit EPJ voted, much less voted for someone who supports obamacare. Wenzel's been on this stuff from day one.

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  26. Not surprising. Dems are allergic to math!

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  27. And the American press cowers in fear, terrified to report anything but Obama propaganda.

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  28. The low IQ Democrat clowns who voted for this moron Barack Obama - TWICE - are poison for America and all of the hard working and productive people who have managed to keep this once great and now lost and floundering nation afloat - at least until now when this mongrel Barack Obama usurped the title of president.

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  29. And the American press cowers in fear, terrified to report anything but Obama propaganda.

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  30. The smart people in congress are looking to defund Obamacare and we can do it since the purse is with the House of Reps.

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  31. The smart people in congress are looking to defund Obamacare and we can do it since the purse is with the House of Reps.

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  32. The destruction of America right in front of our eyes.
    -Thorax232
    --------------------------------------------
    Family Survival Course Book

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  33. Since the entire body of Damocrat elected senators and congressional representatives passed this telling us that it was not a tax, why don't the state Attorney Generals and other prosecutors start fraud criminal charges against all of these representatives and also President Obama. Bring the charges in as many courts as possible. Let the leftist judges dismiss the case and appeal this to the next higher court. If nothing else works, take this to the court of public opinion through the talk shows on both radio and television. Whenever an article like this one comes out, use that as more ammunition.

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  34. Terrified? If so, it is because they fear they he will not love them, or worse, give them the same treatment they gave Woodward.

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  35. It's so cute listening to all the conservatives who view this report without factoring in the Medicare savings which make this Law a net deficit reduction.

    Of course, pesky little things like facts don't really matter when the kool-aid tastes SO good. Oh, and thanks for the war in Iraq, guys, and your un-paid-for tax cuts. That was about eight trillion in borrowed cash that you BLEW for zero national gain.

    You'll forgive me for saying that nobody, anywhere thinks of Republicans as being 'fiscally conservative'.

    Except Republicans, of course.

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    Replies
    1. Morons like you are easy to spot. This blog has opposed the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. since the start. You are the Kool Aid addict. Fuck off.

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  36. I'll bet the final number will be at least 10 times the original estimate.

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  37. To be fair, it looks like the main reason the estimates are higher is that the new estimates cover a different range of years.

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  38. To be fair, it looks like the main reason for the higher estimate is that the new estimate covers a different set of years.

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  39. Wait, you're telling me that the government spent more money than expected AND they weren't truthful about it? This should be a surprise to idiots only.

    www.therightofanation.com

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  40. So what. No one is going to do anything about this. For those who choose to participate in this farce, you're stuck with it. Enjoy.

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  41. Yes, there are many many evildoers behind this program, but there is one special traitor to America responsible -- US Supreme Court Justice John Roberts. Period.

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  42. Obama's constituency is the 50% who don't pay taxes. 50% of nothing is still nothing. So, the only ones getting royally rooked are those who work hard - the ants. The grasshoppers, who don't do nothing but loaf around, get just as many votes.

    And you stayed home because you didn't think voting matters - and you didn't work for the Republicans since what - they are as bad as Democrats? WRONG - you vote for the lesser of two evils and try to nudge them to the right..

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  43. In 1965 Medicare was predicted to cost the government $9 billion in 1990. In 1990 it actually cost the American tax payer $67 billion.
    In 1987, Congress estimated that Medicaid’s disproportionate share hospital (DSH) payments would cost less than $1 billion in 1992. The actual cost that year was a staggering $17 billion.
    When Congress debated changes to Medicare’s home care benefit in 1988, the projected 1993 cost of the benefit was $4 billion. The actual 1993 cost was $10 billion.
    The Bush Medicare drug program (Another liberal program {along with "No Child Behind" written by Teddy (hiccup) Kennedy} that demonstrates that the left NEVER had a better friend than George W Bush) was predicted to cost $534 billion over the first ten years. Only ONE YEAR LATER it was acknowledged that it will cost $1.2 TRILLION.
    Any lib who believed what the left told us the cost of Obamacare would be...is an idiot.

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  44. The wife of a guy at work is a "coder" for one of our two big regional medical groups. She was just at a meeting where the bean counters told them they are not sure they can even function when Obamacare hits. The workers there are very afraid for their jobs.

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  45. Wait! What does the media have to say about this?

    chirp. chirp chirp. chirp.

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  46. No...just "no". Paul Ryan is right. Obamacare is DOA; the price tag is too high. Defund it. Obama lied through his teeth when he campaigned for its passage and told the American people it would save them money. On the other hand, he lies about everything else, too...

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  47. We've been invaded by the Drudge crowd. Politics is the problem, not the solution.

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    Replies
    1. And with that you killed the thread. ;P

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  48. Here is what I do not understand because this post really has no meaning. Does this mean that the revenue from the proposed taxes are actually going to create more revenue or are these new taxes. That is 2 totally different statements. Please explain your post.

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  49. Please explain your post. Does this mean that the proposed tax increases are now expected to generate more revenue or has there been changes to the tax increases? If so when were these voted in. Information like this is only for the simpleminded emotional responders. Not for someone who takes 2 seconds to question.

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  50. YEAHH!- this is great-- finally government working in the richest country in the world to provide for a more equitable society that helps provide health care for all-- this will be good for middle class and our economy

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