Egypt to Implode?

By Daniel McAdams

The Egypt experiment is falling apart. The massive protests today, marking the first year of Islamist Mohamed Morsi's rule, are pushing the country of more than 80 million to a crisis point with implications for the entire region. It has been a slow-motion disintegration from the begining, however.

US-backed liberal Egyptians took to Tahrir Square in 2011, trained by the State Department to mobilize masses through social media to overthrow Mubarak rule. Their success resulted in their being shunted aside in favor of the real power in Egypt, post-Mubarak: the Muslim Brotherhood and the military.

Since then, contrary to US government predictions, democracy and freedom has not broken out bringing with it economic prosperity and social harmony. History teaches us that revolutions are not as simplistic and binary (bad out, good in) as some would like us to believe. The Egyptian economy, dependent on tourism, has been in free-fall since the unrest, leading to deep layers of resentment in those who were told that overthrowing Mubarak would bring economic growth. Energy costs have soared and electricity is increasingly scarce.

 Why did the US support both the position (Mubarak) and the opposition (April 6 Movement, Kifaya, etc.)? It is not as uncommon as it might seem. Aging and ailing Mubarak's rule was coming to an end anyway, Egypt's population was young and frustrated, and though the US did not necessarily wish to spoil its relationship with the Egyptian dictator it did seek maximum influence on the coming succession struggles. With half the population under age 35, US training of young Egyptians  in the use of social media and the regime change techniques of CIA-asset Gene Sharp was a successful strategy to light the revolutionary fire.

Additionally, as Mubarak explains in an interview this month, he was proving an irritation to the US over his refusal to allow permanent US military installations in Egypt and his refusal to allow the US to "help" with establishing a communications network in Egypt.

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