Thursday, December 5, 2013

Has Joe Weisenthal Just Become a Fool Twice?

On December 1, Weisenthal wrote:
I'm changing my mind about Bitcoin.
I used to think it was a joke or at best a currency for clowns.

Now, I no longer think that[...]

Now there's always a danger in changing your mind on something after a gigantic rally, because that looks like "capitulation" and that usually happens at the top, and then you're made to look like a fool twice. First you end up looking like a fool for being negative at the bottom. Then you look like a fool for changing your mind at the top. You see this kind of thing happen all the time, because humans are herders, and it's difficult to have contrary opinions, especially in markets where the price moves against you daily.

Weisenthal then discusses why he has turned bullish on Bitcoin, including this whopper of a reason:
In the Bitcoin community, there's tons of talk about how the future of Bitcoin is in China, and there does seem to be tons of trading volume happening there. Here's the potential: China has lots of rich people, but a fragile banking system, and strict capital controls, meaning it's difficult to get your wealth out of the country. One way rich people get their wealth out of the country is by laundering it through Macau[...].
Bitcoin, theoretically, promises an even easier path to do this. Rich person buys a bunch of bitcoins, transfers them to a Bitcoin wallet associated with a financial institution outside of China, sells the bitcoins into some new currency, and then voila.

Of course, China just started a crackdown on Bitcoin and specifically with regard to using Bitcoin for money laundering. I expect eventual executions.

Will China make Weisenthal look like a fool twice? I'm not sure, but just wait until the US comes out with regs that suffocate Bitcoin. The banksters are not going to allow Bitcoin to takeover anything. Weisenthal  just got caught up in the hype.

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