Craig Wright, who has recently revealed himself to be Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto, has a discussion on his website about Moore's Law.
In the article, he states that in certain ways Moore's Law is dead. Most interesting, he also comments that computational power will be held back more significantly by software programming.
"Software does not scale near any rate that hardware does," Wright states. "For all the advances we have made, the one that we have not made (to any great extent) is in software. Software is slower now and becoming bloated...
"Perhaps it is not technology as much as it is economics that allows the downward slide. Market forces dictate much of this effect. The uptake of newer types of architecture has been delayed, although by consumers more than by manufacturers."
This flies in the face of the argument made by Ray Kurzweil that there is a steady almost magical exponential growth in the world at all times. He calls it the Law of Accelerating Returns.
I have argued against Kurzweil's view (SEE: A Comment on Kurzweillian Exponential Growth).
Wright's comment appears to support my view from two different directions. First, growth can not be said to be exponential at all times from all directions.Wright's declaration that in a certain way Moore's Law is dead makes this case, as does his contention that software growth is currently sluggish and bloated.
Second, and this is a point Kurzweil completely fails to take into account, Wright correctly states that there is an economic component to how fast various systems grow.