The crack team here at EPJ is hot today. First we had Taylor Conant break the details of Treasury Secretary Geithner's secret meeting with yes-men.
Now, Bob English explains why he suspects that Paul Tudor Jones is the "secret" client Tony Robbins refers to when he discusses the stock market and warns his listeners to get out of stocks .
Note: English is also correct in blaming Bob Murphy for having his head screwed on straight, and thus not needing Robbins' coaching and thus not getting Murphy's wisdom about the economy. If Murphy was a little bit off and unsure of himself and sought out Robbins' help, Robbins wouldn't be throwing around the erroneous Keynesian theories about consumer spending being the solution to the current economic crisis.
To be fair, the "channeling" comment comes from Trader's Narrative, which I linked to at the bottom of my post. However, anyone familiar with his video (produced on the public's dime--so don't feel shy about downloading) and track record could come to that conclusion independently.
ReplyDeleteHe may well be "channeling" PTJ regarding the stock market but listening to his webcast his economic analysis is very similar to the best work of Harry Dent. Dent's demographic trend analysis was based on work by Strauss and Howe who wrote: "Generations: The History of America's Future" and "The Fourth Turning." In the later book written in 1997 the authors observed that historically the patterns of 1980's and 90's had happened many times before, when "Americans felt as if they were drifting toward a cataclysm. And as it turns out they were." These patterns are based on individual human behavior and its changes as people grow from youth to old age.
ReplyDeleteThe authors forecast a "decisive era of secular upheaval" coming in the decade following 2005. They describe this "upheaval" as culminating in something on the order of "the American Revolution, Civil War, the Great Depression and WWII."
I am not a fatalist but the book is very interesting and may be something Tony Robbins read or was exposed to via Harry Dent. Robbins financial planning suggestions seem quite astute for any time period as no one can clearly predict the future.
The combination of ABCT (for economics), generational theory (Strauss and Howe) and geopolitics (Friedman / Stratfor) is a deadly predictive combination. Geopolitics places strong structural limits on human action that can persist for millenia. It is unlikely that China will be able to break its cycle this time around. http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100308_chinas_challenge?
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