It includes Austrian-lites who have seemed to ditch the idea that the Austrian school theory of the business cycle is about a boom-bust cycle. For them it has become a bust only cycle(?).
This is really the Paul Krugman view. Despite a collapse in unemployment :
Despite upwardly trending real estate prices:
Despite a generally uptrending stock market:
Austrian-lites and Krugman hold the view that there has been no boom period since the 2008 financial crash. Krugman emphasized this yesterday:
It looks, in other words, as if we’re still living in the economic era we entered in 2008 — an era of persistent weakness, in which deflation and depression, not inflation and deficits, are the key challenges.Persistent weakness? Depression? Is this guy serious? The same economic era since 2008?
What the hell has he been reading? Austrian-lite?
Unemployment has improved dramatically since 2008. So has real estate and the stock market. There has been some weakness in the stock market of late, but, as I have pointed out in the EPJ Daily Alert, this doesn't appear to be business cycle related.
For sure, the U.S. economy is based on a shaky structure created by Federal Reserve money printing and a total economic collapse somewhere down the road will occur, but it is possible we are years off from that.
Krugman calls out daily for the Fed to maintain low interest rates and the Austrian-lites hold the difficult to understand view that the Fed can never raise rates, In other words, they both hold a "rates near zero" perspective. Krugman is actually a bit sounder here becasue he actually understands that the Fed could actually raise rates from here, while the Austrian -lites don't think it can happen--that the Fed will be forced to keep rates at current levels or possibly lower them.
I hasten to add I am not forecasting that a Fed rate hike will necessarily occur at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting (March 15-16), but that the trend over time will be much higher rates.
Bottom line: The Fed isn't going to listen to Krugman or the Austrian-lites. In fact, the big surprise is going to be rapidly escalating price inflation in 2H 2016, by that I mean first inflation climbing up to 3%, as measured by government price indexes and then 5%. It will be price inflation at 5% that will surely force the hand of the Fed to raise rates, if they have not done so before then.