Monday, September 15, 2008

The Morning Ahead

The factors to monitor in the morning are near overwhelming.

To start, we have an FOMC meeting. Will the Fed cut rates?

Henry Paulson is scheduled to testify before Congress in the morning, and later in the day he is scheduled to give a speech at the Brookings Institute about the economy and housing. He is likely to be very cautious at both venues about what he says. Will he by accident trigger more downside action?

Lehman has filed for Chapter 11 and other banks have continued to trade with it. Yet, despite being in Chapter 11, and presumably under court supervision, Lehman continues to push for a shotgun sale of its money management firm, among other assets. How will this activity sit with the bankruptcy judge and other bankers?

The Merrill Lynch acquisition by Bank of America looks shaky. Will the deal still be alive by the end of the day? How tight of an acquisition contract was John Thain able to draw up in such an intense, short term period?

What news will develop from the AIG situation?

How will the markets react to the downgrade of WaMu?

Will the panic in the investment bank arena spread to the two remaining major independent players, Morgan Stanley and, the very well connected, Goldman Sachs? 

How bad will things get overnight in overseas trading?

Have a good nights sleep.
-Robert Wenzel

No comments:

Post a Comment