Thursday, October 30, 2008

Apparently SF Fed President Janet Yellen Doesn't Believe in Stagflation

From a speech she delivered today to the UCLA Symposium at UC Berkeley in Berkeley, California:

Indeed, recent data on the economy have been deeply worrisome. Data released this morning reveal that the economy contracted slightly in the third quarter. For the fourth quarter, it appears likely that the economy is contracting significantly. Mainly for this reason, inflationary risks have diminished greatly.
With the Fed pumping money again, but the economy still re-adjusting from the previous money printing boom, I wouldn't rule out stagflation sometime in the next two to six months.

Note: I must again mention that Yellen's new speechwriter of recent months is a major improvement, the old hedging sluggish Yellen speeches of the past are gone. At least, you can understand what Yellen is saying, and now there is a strong analytical touch to the speeches. Even in Yellen's speech today, there is a pretty solid comment on the failure of econometric models.

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