Monday, October 13, 2008

There Goes The Harvard Prediction Market

Grge Mankiw published this ranking on Friday of bets being made on who would win the Nobel Prize in Economics this year:

Robert Barro has emerged in the Harvard Nobel Pool with 16.2% of all bets. However, the triumvirate of Hansen, Sargent and Sims, who many believe would be chosen together, has garnered nearly 23% of the vote and is the most likely prize, especially when one controls for home bias. Top vote getters as of now are below, although entries can be submitted until Sunday.

Barro 16.2%
Hansen 12.2%
Sargent 6.8%
Fama 6.8%
Diamond 4.1%
Feldstein 4.1%
Sims 4.1%
Thaler 4.1%

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