The latest jobs numbers show a loss of 598,000 jobs in January and an unemployment rate climb to 7.6%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statstics. This is the highest single month drop since December 1974 and highest unemployment rate since May 1992. The December payroll numbers were revised up to a loss of 577,000 and the November numbers were revised down to a loss of 597,000. This is the 13th straight month of losses. In the 2001 recession, monthly losses hit a high of 325,000. The 1990-91 recession peaked at 306,000 losses.
The key point to keep in mind is that the jobs numbers are considered to be a lagging indicator. Unemployment numbers tend to be worst toward the end of a recession. CNBC has a great Haver Analytics chart displaying this occurence (Shaded gray areas are recession periods) :
As I would expect, it's the capital goods sector that continues to get pounded, in January, durable goods manufacturing lost 157,000 jobs, with notable decreases in fabricated metal products (-37,000), motor vehicles and parts (-31,000), and machinery (-22,000). Employment in nondurable goods manufacturing declined by 50,000 over the month.
Construction lost 111,000 jobs in January. Employment in the industry has fallen by about 1.0 million since peaking in January 2007.
What the BLS considers "retail trade" employment, and I consider mostly capital goods employment, fell by 45,000 in January and by 592,000 since a peak in November 2007. In particular in January, employment declined in automobile dealerships (-14,000), building material and garden supply stores (-10,000), department stores (-9,000), and furniture and home furnishing stores (-7,000).
Transportation and warehousing lost 44,000 jobs in January and 202,000 since the start of the recession. Most of the decline occurred over the last 5 months. In January, employment fell in truck transportation (-25,000), support activities for transportation (-9,000), and couriers and messengers (-4,000).
Employment in financial activities declined by 42,000 over the month and by 388,000 since a peak in December 2006. In January, job losses occurred in securities, commodity contracts, and investments (-15,000) and in credit intermediation (-10,000).
Health care employment continued to trend up in January with a gain of 19,000. Employment gains in the industry averaged 30,000 a month in 2008. Employment in private education rose by 33,000 over the month.
What exactly are you saying in this blog post? That if this is the end of the recession, then things will soon improve in the unemployment numbers? Well, yeah, that's true.
ReplyDeleteBut what if unemployment is destined to go to 12%, and the recession won't end until 4q 2010? Wouldn't the current numbers be perfectly consistent with that scenario, and the chart from Haver Analytics?
(BTW even I'm not so sure why I am hostile to you lately. I think it's because you have been picking on poor Jeff Tucker.)
What I am doing at this post is commenting within the general flow of this blog and the view that the recession is close to over. With my holding this view, some may ask, well why are the unemployment numbers so bad?
ReplyDeleteConsequently, this post is saying to those who are following my thinking. "Hey, nothing here that changes my view." I am not using the number as a predictive ,saying, aha, the numbers are bad therefore we are coming out of recession.I am simply commenting in the flow that this does not throw a wrench into my thinking that the recession is near over.
It's in the flow of the blog, the same way that I mention the unemployment number is high in the capital good sector without mentioning why this should be so, since I have mentioned why many times before.
Anyway, hostility doesn't bother me. It just makes things stand out clearer when I am proved right.
As for Jeffrey Tucker, I happen to believe that the anti-intellectual property rights belief he is promoting is the worst thing that has hit the Mises Institute, and LRC, ever. It is anti-individual rights and anti-contract. It is anti-freedom (Why shouldn' I be able to contract in anyway with anyone with any of my writings?) Judging by the comments left here at EPJ, Tucker has picked up quite a following for what is one of the most dangerous ideas to ever be promoted. It is worse than wage price controls, it is worse than inflation, it is probably worse than even war.
To say an individual can create a written work and that anyone else can copy that work without permission is just about the most dangerous thing I can think of.
Maybe Tucker doesn't write for money but I do.
How many more books are you, Bob, going to stay up all hours and write under Tucker's view of writing as belonging to everyone? And if you believe in Tucker's open source view, please in all future writings arrange to send a copy to me with full publishing rights. You are a talented writer and I will make good money off you.
Tucker is not only wrong. He is dangerously wrong and I will prove so in my book. Further, as for his initial rude response to me, I was frankly very shocked. Bob, as you know, I tend to try to read people quickly. And as far as Tucker is concerned, anyone that responds to a sincere email with one word "bullshit" does not score very high in a lot of categories.
And if you believe in Tucker's open source view, please in all future writings arrange to send a copy to me with full publishing rights. You are a talented writer and I will make good money off you.
ReplyDeleteWell I don't have the legal authority to do that with books I'm writing for publishers, so you can call me a hypocrite for signing such contracts if you want.
But I hereby give you my full permission to take anything from my blog and do what you will with it. I ask not as a legal matter but as a personal courtesy that you acknowledge in your product that the ideas originally came from my blog.
But if you want to make a million dollars selling my ideas to people, feel free. I hope you do.
Bob,
ReplyDeleteAre you serious? I will have a "Bob Murphy on the Economy" site up tomorrow. Think about it, I will give you 24 hours to change your mind.
Further, do you own the rights to Chaos Theory, if so, do I have the rights to publish that?
Are you serious? I will have a "Bob Murphy on the Economy" site up tomorrow. Think about it, I will give you 24 hours to change your mind.
ReplyDeleteTo be clear, I am referring to stuff I write on my own blog. And yes, do whatever you want with that. I am surprised that you are so shocked that I would oppose you blasting my name out to the world. Again, all I ask as a personal courtesy is that people would know where you originally got it.
Further, do you own the rights to Chaos Theory, if so, do I have the rights to publish that?
Eh, that's a little trickier, because some places have bought a bunch of those books from me, and I would possibly be hurting them by giving you the green light. So it's a weird situation where people make plans expecting these (illegitimate) rules to be in place, so I think I will remain silent on that one.
In any event, the pdf of Chaos Theory is available here.
Bob,
ReplyDeleteCan you just be clear that this is an irrevocable grant of permission. I would hate to start posting your stuff, and you find sanity and pull this permission and I am stuck building up your writing talents and then at the payoff (when Krugman's name is second to yours), I am on the outside looking in, just sucking my thumb.