Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Krugman the Data Hound

All joking aside, I have made clear many times that Paul Krugman doesn't get business cycle theory, BUT he does seem to be a data hound that does detect some trends early. In fact, I think he is probably one of the best data readers around. Ignore his theories, but always pay attention to what he is observing in the data.

Which brings me to a post he made yesterday:

...Some of the economic news lately has been slightly better than expected, which was bound to happen at some point (on average, after all, half the news should be better than expected). Mostly this is in the form of things getting worse more slowly, but it wouldn’t be surprising if we see, say, an uptick in industrial production in a few months...
Even in the same post, his theories are all nonsense, but he does see the data clearly. The uptick is coming.

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