Thursday, April 2, 2009

US Factory Orders Rise 1.8% in February

Get ready for some company. We are not alone anymore in seeing the end of this recession. The best data hound, trend followers don't understand business cycle theory, but they are sharp enough to see the writing on the wall that this recession is near over. Another sign pointing to the end of the recession was today's Commerce Departments news on factory orders.

Commerce reported that factory orders rose 1.8 percent in February after a revised 3.5 percent drop in January, initially reported as a 1.9 percent decline.

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, jumped 7.1 percent after a steep 12.3 percent drop in January.

Orders for durable goods rose 3.5 percent, revised from the previously published 3.4 percent increase, while orders for nondurable goods edged up 0.3 percent.

What the trend followers don't have a clue about though is the blast of inflation that is likely to hit 6 to 12 months down the road.

1 comment:

  1. I've been saying this a lot lately, but "aaaawww, crap....."

    I predict that soon they are going to start saying "see, we told you the fundamentals were strong, and now we are getting back on track"

    I would love to hear your guesses as to whether it will be a double-dip recession (Bernanke realizes his errors, and does a Paul Volcker before going into permanent hiding on a remote island), a drawn out decade of stagflation (Bernanke gets his tie stuck in the printing press and keeps moving the speed back and forth every quarter), or if the world gets to re-experience weimar-style hyperinflation (Bernanke quits his job with the presses on full speed)