As the summer was turning into a fall, there was a really brief period when it was super-cool to believe in the V-shaped recovery.Weisenthal doesn't explain why this is occurring. There is no indication he understands business cycle theory, but he does see what is in front of him. And he has put together a great series of charts to show the start of the second dip. See the charts here.
There were all kinds of op-eds written about this bravely optimistic idea.
But something happened.
The data from October and November has not been particularly strong.
The V-shaped recovery is beginning to look more U-shaped or - gasp - W-shaped.
Friday, December 11, 2009
It's Beginning To Look a Lot Like a "W" Double-Dip Recession
Joe Weisenthal writes:
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Roberou're been saying?t,
ReplyDeleteYou've been beating the "stocks will crash again" drum for a while now and yet the broad indices just keep tacking on gains after gains. Any time frame as to when stocks head south again and signal the rest of the world to what you've been saying all along?
Troy
@ Troy
ReplyDeleteTiming is always very difficult. It is like trying to predict today what the exact weather is going to be on February 14, 2011. We know February is the winter season in the Northeast, but to predict exactness is impossible because of the multitude of micro-factors. They won't change the macro-environment, but exactness is impossible.
Right now we are in financial "winter", the market could break at any time, and you have to trade aware that the break will come.
That said, the recent weakness in gold suggests the clouds are getting thicker.
Thanks Robert.
ReplyDeleteTroy