Sunday, January 10, 2010

WOW: Republican Leading in Massachusetts Senate Race

Will Massachusetts voters put a Republican in the Senate to replace Ted Kennedy?

The race for the Senate seat that is empty, because of the death of Kennedy, may end up in the hands of Scott Brown.

January 19th is voting day and right now the polling firm Public Policy Polling shows Republican Scott Brown leading Martha Coakley 48-47.

According to PPP:
-As was the case in the Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia last year, it looks like the electorate in Massachusetts will be considerably more conservative than the one that showed up in 2008. Obama took the state by 26 points then, but those planning to vote next week only report having voted for him by 16.

-Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic about turning out to vote than Democrats are. 66% of GOP voters say they are 'very excited' about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that's among the Democrats who are planning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.

-Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama's plan with 59% opposed.

-In a trend that's going to cause Democrats trouble all year, voters disgusted with both parties are planning to vote for the one out of power. Perhaps the most remarkable thing about Brown's standing is that only 21% of Massachusetts voters have a favorable opinion of Congressional Republicans...but at the same time only 33% view Congressional Democrats favorably. And among voters who have a negative take on both parties, who account for more than 20% of the electorate, Brown leads 74-21.
On a side note, this is probably the best news Peter Schiff, running for the Senate seat in neighboring Connecticut, has gotten all week.


1 comment:

  1. A victory for Brown likely means the end of Obama's health care bill - reason enough to vote for him.