Thursday, May 6, 2010

Jim Rogers: Large Western Financial Institution Has Major Currency Problems

In an interview with the Economic Times, Rogers says:
I am shorting a stock market index in the US, I am shorting an emerging market index and I am shorting one of the large western international financial institutions. It is an emerging market index; it is not a specific country. It is an index of many emerging markets and that is mainly because the emerging markets have grown the most during the past few months of this big recovery. So that is where some of the excesses are developing. As for the large western bank, it is a bank which people think is extremely sound. If I am right, there are going to be more currency problems and more turmoil in the markets, it will have to come down.
Hmmm? I can't think of any banks that people think of as sound. I wonder what Rogers has in mind.

As for shorting the emerging markets, this makes sense. Rogers is watching money flows here. Where the money flows is very likely to be where the weakness will be most intense on  a resumption of the downturn.

And Rogers is right on as far as current bubbles:
I do not see a bubble in finance like we had two or three years ago. I only see two bubbles in the world, one is the Chinese urban to real estate and the other is the United States’ government bond market.

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