The best macro-economic data forecasting work is being done by Richard Davis at Consumer Metrics Institute.
His data has been pointing downward for the last six consecutive weeks.
The second best group out there is Economic Cycle Research Institute. Their index just fell to 123.2 in the week ended June 4, down from 124 the week before, a -3.5% annualized contraction: the first time this has gone negative in over a year. This is the lowest level since July 31, 2009, when it was at 122.4.
Both these groups are light years ahead in collecting and analyzing data compared to government analytics and other Keynesian forecasters.
It should be noted that both CMI and ECRI do not use some mad modeling schemes to forecast the future. They are just very good at collecting and reporting exactly what is going on.
Given our negative view on the economy, especially the stock market, because of the current tight Fed monetary policy, we can't argue with the signals coming from these two groups. It looks bad.
The Ceridian Pulse of Commerce Index had the largest increase since February '99 in May. So we have continuing strength in manufacturing and inventory with weak consumer demand. Something's got to give.
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