Thursday, September 9, 2010

Latest Jobless Numbers: Bogus to the Second Power

Foe the week ending Sept. 4, the BLS is reporting seasonally adjusted initial claims were 451,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 478,000.

But according to a Labor Department official, for the  reporting week, nine states didn’t file claims data to the Labor Department because of the Labor Day holiday earlier this week. As a result, California and Virginia estimated their figures and the Labor Department estimated the other seven, the official said.

So much for any solidity to the 27,000 decrease in jobless claims. You have some states estimating their data and the Labor Department estimating for other states.

Bottom line: The Labor Department data collection methods are generally edgy. But, with these added "estimates" taking place, the decline in initial claims is a totally meaningless number.

1 comment:

  1. Welcome to the U.S. Equity market carnival, complete with midway games, the bearded lady and guessing the pretty girl's weight. And Mary Schapiro thinks the retail investor has anxiety because of the flash crash!

    This "market" has gone well beyond absurd...