Thursday, November 25, 2010

The Coming Breakup of the EuroZone?

Reuters is out with an analysis on the growing view that the Eurozone will crackup. They point to the  paper , Why the euro-one needs to break up, by British economist Christopher Smallwood of consultants Capital Economics, to Nouriel Roubini's prediction that down the road the euro will have to be abondoned and to Financial Times commentator Gideon Rachman being on the edge of calling for a breakup.

There's a lot to be said for this view, but the breakup may come much sooner than most expect. Ireland could be the tipping point. Unlike Greece, Ireland is not under immediate pressure for a source of funds. They can survive well into next year. If the current Irish government attempts to seal the deal that has been agreed upon with the EU/IMF for bailout funds, new elections are assured. Any new government will have to come up with a plan to solve their financial crisis, but not kowtow to the EU/IMF banksters.

One such plan would be for Ireland to leave the EU and return to their old currency, the Irish pound. With a return to their own currency, the Irish governmentt can turn to the printing presses to provide the money needed to pay off their debt. This, of course, would be highly inflationary and not the wisest move, but it could be attractive to the Irish people and it would be an important crack in the EU.

Alternatively, but unlikely, Ireland could withdraw from the EU, return to the Irish pound, maintain a fixed money supply and declare bankruptcy. Thus ending the debt and solidifying the economy for huge growth.

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