Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Confusion at WSJ on Fed Activities

On the day the Federal Reserve is likely to announce huge money printing under the code name "Quantitative Easing 2", WSJ is doing its best to keep the public as confused as WSJ, itself, appears to be.

WSJ reporter Kelly Evans, who once declared that Peter Boettke was "emerging as the intellectual standard-bearer for the Austrian school of economics...", reveals, today, some of her economic understanding that likely helped her reach the conclusion on Boettke.

She writes:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected on Wednesday to announce another bout of bond buying meant to stimulate the U.S. economy
What Kelly misses here is that the Fed is going into a complete new type of bond buying. It appears the Fed will be buying Treasury securities with maturities of 10 years or more in the secondary market. This has never been done before by the Fed. It is not "another bout of bond buying". The Fed in the passed has only bought short-term Treasury securities. Their special asset buying during the financial crisis was, as far as the Fed has disclosed, pretty much about mortgage backed securities---although long term in nature only an amateur would refer to them as bonds. A knowing MBS trader would nod at such a naive use of the term and think, "Boy, do I have a live one here."

In other words, Kelly is missing the essence of mad scientist Bernanke introducing a new "tool" into QE2, i.e., for the first time ever, the Fed is going to be buying Treasury securities with maturities of 10 years or longer.

From there Kelly goes on to tell us:
Additional asset purchases, a process known as "quantitative easing," are costly, risky and unlikely to have an immediate or major effect on growth in gross domestic product.
Here, we have confusion on several fronts. I have never, ever seen the word "costly" used with regard to Fed money printing. The Fed just prints the damn money (technically issuing an electronic credit). It isn't as though the Fed has a limit as to what they can print, or has to find the money somewhere. Using the word "costly" here makes little sense. (It's possible she means there is an inflation cost, though unlikely because of what comes next)  She next tells us that  QE2 is "risky". I hope here she means that there is a huge inflationary threat because of this money printing. We don't know for sure because instead of writing, "inflationary threat" she uses the word "risky", which means we don't know what the hell kind of risk she is talking about.

Finally, she tells us that it is "unlikely to have an immediate or major effect on growth in gross domestic product."

How she reaches this conclusion, she does not tells us. She just drops it out there. In truth, if the Fed prints enough money, it will be very inflationary, but GDP will look good damn fast. And $500 billion over a few months might just be enough to do the trick.

There's more confusion in the short six column piece, but you should get the picture from here. You aren't going to learn anything from WSJ about how the Fed is operating. In fact, it is almost dangerous to read their stuff.

9 comments:

  1. So you think it's going to be mainly about the 10's and 30's? I guess we'll see, but there's only $171 B avail, including new supply over the next 12 mos. That assumes the Fed sticks to its 35% guideline. It prob. will be lifted at some time in the future, but it will continue buying 2-7's with QE2. Incidentally, the Fed bought $2.5 B in 10's and 30's last Fri, 10/26:

    T 08.125 08/15/21 346,000,000
    T 08.000 11/15/21 67,000,000
    T 06.875 08/15/25 15,000,000
    T 06.125 11/15/27 292,000,000
    T 05.500 08/15/28 310,000,000
    T 04.250 05/15/39 695,000,000
    T 04.500 08/15/39 760,000,000
    T 04.375 11/15/39 15,000,000

    You are right that Evans is too dismissive, as the shear size of the program will make it unlike anything prior.

    No pic?

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  2. I think they are going to go into the secondary market. This is going to be totally different from anything they have been doing.

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  3. Okay, so in March of 2009, they started purchasing 2-10 year maturities, totaling 300B. Now you are thinking they are going to do 10yr+ AND you think they will not be buying newly issued debt at auctions, but directly into the secondary market? Why do you think this, and secondly, how does it affect the market and/or money supply differently? Thanks.

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  4. I didn't say they won't be buying new debt. They will probably continue that but also buy in the secondary market.

    Why do I think this? Because Bernanke has been hinting at it.

    How will it impact the market? Good question. No one knows for sure. It is another crazy "tool" Bernnake is going to introduce in the middle of a crisis.

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  5. All open market operations, by definition, take place in the secondary market. The only buying the Fed does in the primary market (i.e., directly with the Treasury) is when it replaces maturing securities. If the discussion is about the issuance recency of security purchases, that is another matter.

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  6. First, the 35% cap is only for T-bills.
    Treasury coupon issues are capped on a graduated scale from 25 percent for two-year notes down to 15 percent for coupon securities with maturities of 10 years or more, so it is very likely the caps will be removed or changed.

    The FRBNY routinely has rolled over the SOMA holdings of Treasury securities into new issues, but as you point out (in your second comment) they don't buy Treasurys direct.

    I only empasised the secondary market because you mentioned new supply-which the Fed doesn't generally buy--in your first comment.

    But the real key is it appears, based on the leaks some or all of QE2, will be Treasurys with remaining maturities of 10 years plus.

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  7. Do you have an inside source on the graduated caps? Have not read about them before.

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  8. Never mind--it was in the SOMA FAQ page all along: http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/markets/2000/an000705.html

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  9. Looks like the issue is now moot:

    "To provide operational flexibility and to ensure that it is able to purchase the most attractive securities on a relative-value basis, the Desk is temporarily relaxing the 35 percent per-issue limit on SOMA holdings under which it has been operating. However, SOMA holdings of an individual security will be allowed to rise above the 35 percent threshold only in modest increments."

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/monetary20101103a1.pdf

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