Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Fed Gone Mad: Total Supermoney Through Second Quarter of 2011 could be as Much as $900 Billion

There are a few important points that must be emphasised about QE2. First, this is supermoney the Fed will be putting into the system. At the M2 money supply level it could easily be twice the QE2 amount of $600 billion. Further, the Fed is going to continue to reinvest principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities into longer-term Treasury securities.

Here's the Fed Bank of New York on that amount:

The FOMC also directed the Desk to continue to reinvest principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities into longer-term Treasury securities. Based on current estimates, the Desk expects to reinvest $250 billion to $300 billion over the same period, though the realized amount of reinvestment will depend on the evolution of actual principal payments.


Taken together, the Desk anticipates conducting $850 billion to $900 billion of purchases of longer-term Treasury securities through the end of the second quarter. This would result in an average purchase pace of roughly $110 billion per month, representing about $75 billion per month associated with additional purchases and roughly $35 billion per month associated with reinvestment purchases.
So in total, we could be talking about the Fed in roughly an eight month period pumping as much as $900 billion in super money.

The key is to realize that supermoney can have a multiple impact on the money supply. In 2008, just before the financial crisis broke out, the multiplier impact on M2 was 10. Got that 10? Although, I don't necessarily expect it to go that high at this point (there are all those excess reserves). A multiplier impact of 2 or 3 is certainly not out of the question. That would put the M2 money supply increase in the range of $1.6 trillion to $2.7 trillion. In other words, an annualized money growth rate of over 20%. And this is conservative. If the multiplier is higher and money starts to flow out of excess reserves, you could see M2 grow at record high rates, possibly 30% to 40% on an annualized basis. In other words, the amount of new money hitting the system could be huge amount.
Folks, the dollar is now securely on the road to major devaluation. Price inflation at the consumer level by the end of 2011 will be well into double digits. Way, way into double digits. Prepare yourself now. Start with some gold and silver, and don't worry about short-term fluctuations.

1 comment:

  1. Robert,

    I find your lack of faith disturbing. Bernanke knows how to painlesssly erase inflation, if inflation should occur.

    We have nothing to worry about.

    ReplyDelete