Thursday, December 23, 2010

Christmas Sales Surging; A Likely Indication of 2011 Price Inflation

This past weekend, the last before Christmas, which is typically the second-busiest period of the holiday season, sales surged 5.5 percent to $18.83 billion from the same period last year, according to ShopperTrak, a Chicago-based research firm.

This compares with a 6.2% decline last year and a 15.8% decline in 2008 versus 2007.

More than this being Bernanke's money printing hitting the system (although it might partially be so), I think it is another indication that the strong demand to hold cash balances is reversing. Next stop very strong inflation no later than the second half of 2011. Write it down, you heard it here first.


  1. What counts as very high inflation? 5%? 10%? 100%?

  2. I would argue real inflation is currently running in-excess of 12%. (For context, Government managed economic measurements are manipulated, no investor with serious capital places any stock in published numbers like CPI, Employment, etc.)

    Sales Y.O.Y, adjusted by inflation, are probably DOWN.