Saturday, December 18, 2010

The Coming 'Sugar High' Economic Recovery

Although most economists are actually forecasting slightly slower growth in 2011 than 2010. John Silvia,  chief economist for Wells Fargo, has joined and elite group of economists that include PIMCO economists and Goldman Sachs economists who expect much stronger growth in the economy in the near future. Silva says reports on industrial protection and retail sales for November that came out this week are encouraging.

"Both of them suggest the economy actually is doing quite well. So in the 4th quarter of this year we're probably going to have growth of around three-and-a-half percent," Silvia tells NPR.

It's not that these economists understand Austrian business cycle theory. They are mostly Keynesians, but they are the ones that watch the data most closely and see the turn coming.

Interestingly, Paul Krugman is a pretty good data watcher. He has to see the turn in the economy developing. How is he going to massage his, "We need billions more in stimulus to save the economy" position, so that he is on the right side of the developing economy?

As for the turnaround, it is totally a Ben Bernanke produced event, so it will be as manipulated of a "recovery" as one can get, followed by severe inflation. In other words, the economy will look good, maybe, for the first two quarters of 2011 and that's about it. I explained this to a D.C. insider who got it right away and said, "So it's going to be a 'sugar high' recovery." That nails it exactly.

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