Sunday, February 20, 2011

Carney on the Dangers in the Muni Markets

John Carney has clearly been doing some heavy thinking about the muni market and has reached some important conclusions. Here's a series of tweets by Carney:
I spent way too much time on munis this weekend. Trying to organize thoughts now for big write up. It's very bad. Too many unknowns.
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How can PIMCO have "tested risk management" for general obligation munis if the historical default rate is almost nil?
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Claims of being able to pick "safe" munis are evidence of a lack of awareness of contagion effects.
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The unpredictability of muni defaults is strongly linked to contagion.

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Same with talk of "well-diversified municipal bond portfolios." Recent correlations suggest strong contagion dangers.

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Pimco officially favors "essential service revenue bonds," including public utilities. Biggest default ever was Washington Public Power
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The demand for technical or quantitative proof of muni risk is evidence of a lack of understanding of unique riskiness of muni bonds. [Take that Charlie Gasparino-RW]
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My point is not to forecast muni defaults. My point is that existing bullish forecasts in muniland ignore relevant fragilities.
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The notion that taxpayers and public workers will feel the budgetary pain, while bondholders won't vanishes in the presence of thought.

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A very good precedent to keep in mind. @eradke @carney what happened to bond holders in GM? History may repeat itself
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Selling muni CDS is the new leveraged muni fund. Recipe for disaster for sellers if portfolios get big enough.
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How many top Russian officials were openly advocating default in, say, February 1998?
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Also, we do have people in Congress advocating extending bankruptcy protections to states.
In general, I agree with Carney. I think what is most significant in Carney's argument is that it brings the discussion over to General Obligation bonds, many argue that while certain non-GOs may be at risk,  GOs are safe. Most of Carney's arguments can be applied to GOs as well as non-GOs. Further, Carney's focus on what would occur under contagion makes one realize how vulnerable the entire muni market may be to panic.

2 comments:

  1. Poor Carney. He doesn't realize tweets are for clueless, vapid twits-- he's trying to engage in thoughtful, provocative intellectual curiosity 140 words at a time. It's gotta be like driving a Lamborghini around a track covered 1ft deep with a sand and oil admixture.

    Put it in a blog, John, and let it rip! They deserve the full force of your uncomfortable (for the elites) questions!

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  2. Seems like subprime redux, now that there's leverage (CDS) involved.

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