I just had a conversation with a keen observer of Middle East politics. He suggested I study the overthrow of U.S. puppet, the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, to understand what nay follow the revolutions in Egypt and Libym.
The overthrow of the Shah, he reminded me, came as a surprise to almost all observers. The fact that the revolution resulted in an Islamic republic under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomein, though surprising some, should not have done so.
He said the Shah, like all Middle East dictators, including the recently overthrown Mubabrek in Egypt, and the hanging on by his finger tips Gadaffi in Libya, never allowed opposition parties to form. Once the regime was overthrown, the only group with an organization in the country, the religious, filled the power vacuum.
He says its the same in Egypt and Libya. There are no political parties, the religious groups have the organizations. Thus giving them a very strong edge in filling power vacuums.
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