Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Ron Paul in Third Place in Oregon, Ahead of Gingrich, Pawlenty, Cain and Huntsman

Public Policy Polling, which in my view seems to have the most accurate polling results out there, has some interesting new data out of Oregon and Montana:
We've never found her leading one of our state polls until now but Michele Bachmann's been on fire for the last two weeks and we find her at the top of the GOP field in both Oregon and Montana when Sarah Palin's not included. That's just more indication that if Palin ends up not running Bachmann will pretty instantaneously vault to co-front runner status with Mitt Romney, provided she can continue her current momentum.

In Oregon Bachmann gets 29% to 28% for Romney, 10% for Ron Paul, 9% for Newt Gingrich, 7% for Herman Cain, 6% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Jon Huntsman. In Montana she leads with 25% to 22% for Romney, 11% for Gingrich, 10% for Paul, 9% for Pawlenty,8% for Cain, and 4% for Huntsman.
Here's what happens, according to PPP, if Palin enters the race:
With Palin included there [Romney] gets 28% to 18% for Bachmann, 16% for Palin, 9% for Paul, 8% for Cain, 6% for Gingrich and Pawlenty, and 0% for Huntsman...

In Montana Palin actually leads when she's included with 20% t0 18% for Bachmann, 17% for Romney, 9% for Gingrich and Paul, 8% for Cain, 7% for Pawlenty, and 4% for Huntsman.
I think there is a good chance that Bachmann flames out, and eventually won't be able to pull beyond her religious right supporters . If that happens, where do those voters go? Ron Paul seems to be the only one of that group that likely takes Mises to the beach, like Bachmann.


  1. Screw the idea uttered by some that America is lost if Ron Paul isn't elected president.
    America is lost because Ron Paul can't even beat crypto-neocon Michele Bachmann for the Tea Party vote.

  2. What I can't really understand is why anyone would start running now long before the window actually opens for campaigning in the Republican Party.
    With the exception of Ron who needs every minute to get the message out there in the face of 75 years plus of Government propaganda, Romney and Co would do better to shut up as people get tired very quickly of people who talk at great length but don't say much.

  3. What if they would poll democrats and independents. I would have to think Ron Paul would poll much higher in the west if including these groups.

  4. Bachmann flaming out? Don't count on it. I predict she will win the nomination.

    She is a savvy operator and will ditch all her social conservative mumbo jumbo when talking on the national stage.

  5. No doubt, Bert- she will sell out the religiright at the moment she realizes she no longer needs them.

    The problem is that her "mumbo jumbo" will be preserved for eternity on the interwebs, and her opponents will be able to trot it out at any time.

    That is Dr Paul's secret weapon- no statement (in context) that he has made over the last 30+ years can be used against him. He proudly owns them, and any minor inconsistency (like his conversion from pro- to anti- death penalty) can be easily and logically explained.

    Too bad the average citizen failed logic.

  6. If a significant portion of electorate could be made aware of the fact that Bachmann used to be an IRS shakedown artist (mmm, an attorney), she'll be out, pronto. There's no love lost between Americans and the IRS.

    I wish Ron Paul campaign had an attack wing going aggressively against other candidates. As it happens, Ron Paul is too much of a gentleman, but the truth about the establishment puppets needs to be told, in no uncertain terms. Ad hominem has no place in a civilized discussion, but any kind of dirty tactics is good against the thieves writ large.