Sunday, October 30, 2011

Visible Existing Home Inventory Continues to Decline

The graph below shows the year-over-year change in inventory for both the National Association of Realtors and HousingTracker.

HousingTracker reported that the October listings - for the 54 metro areas - declined 16.4% from last year. Inventory was down 16.7% year-over-year in September.

It is important to keep in mind that this is just "visible inventory" (inventory listed for sales). There is a large percentage of distressed inventory, and various categories of "shadow inventory" also. that said, it is clear some housing inventory is being absorbed. With Fed chairman Ben Bernanke continuing to aggressively print money, the inventory decline should continue. With interest rates as low as they currently, it is unlikely that there ever will be a better time to buy a house.



  1. What happens to housing prices when the inevitable happens and interest rates skyrocket?

  2. Don't you think buying inflation protected investments like oil/gas and gold and storing them away until rates actually rise, then paying cash for a house would be much better?

  3. "it is unlikely that there ever will be a better time to buy a house"

    Hmmm....what if there isn't enough demand to absorb all of the "visible" and "invisible" inventory and prices drop still?

    I'm with Anon @ 11:44....

    Do me a favor Wenzel, do a write up on "crack up booms" as I've done a little reading there but need a more comprehensive look from someone with a better understanding of it's context and how it might apply to today.

    For instance, if we are in one how would that affect the housing market?

  4. Wenzel,
    Keep up the good work on your blog. BTW, here in sunny Southern California, I have seen from my window an entire hillside of trees mowed down in order to build, from my understanding, $1M+ homes 25 miles from downtown LA, over the last ~5 months. Now, it's hard for me to discern between Bernanke's printing press and the notion that CA often leads the ups and downs of the business cycle. This time, it seems to be the same.