Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Bullish ADP Numbers Blow Away Keynesians

The private sector created 206,000 jobs in November, according to ADP and Macroeconomic Advisors. This is far more than expected by Keynesian economists, who have no understanding of the business cycle. The median forecast of Keynesian economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an advance of only 130,000.

Also, the estimated gain in employment from September to October was revised up to 130,000 from the initially reported 110,000.

"This month's jobs figures show positive growth in all major sectors of the economy and are in line with the recent drop in the national unemployment rate and weekly jobless claims," said Carlos Rodriguez, President and CEO of ADP. "Despite fiscal uncertainties here and abroad, owners of small- and medium-sized businesses found ways to grow and hire in November. As in previous months, service providers led the way in job creation." According to Joel Prakken, Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, "November's advance was the largest monthly gain since last December and nearly twice the average monthly gain since May when employment decelerated sharply. Today's report, notably above the consensus forecast, suggests that employment, which decelerated during the spring, accelerated in November. A firming of employment was evident in the major sectors of the economy tracked in The ADP National Employment Report, and across payrolls of most sizes."

Bottom line, the recession is over. Bernanke's money printing is creating a major new manipulated boom. Keynesian economists have failed to understand the power of Fed money printing in manipulating the economy. They are all waiting for a change in "animal spirits". Meanwhile they have been missing the turn since September, as the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index clearly demonstrates:


  1. so then the next question is, where will the next bubble be? after the internet, then real estate, now what? Gold/silver, perhaps, if/when price inflation really kicks in. But I'm interested in others' views of what could be the next big story that the extra money will flow towards.

  2. Austrian Business Cycle Theory says that each successive round of monetary expansion is less effective than the last (hence the analogy to a drug addiction). We've had a roller coaster ride of stimuli this last decade, and the Fall 2010 stimulus had already worn out by Summer 2011. Can this latest round make it through to the November election?

  3. 1. EJP Bingo. Poor Krugman, Stiglitz, Roubini. Miss again.

    2. Yes they will prolong this to the election.