Fed Members Laughed As Housing Bubble Grew

The blog, The Daily Stag Hunt, has calculated the number of times “laughter” was recorded by the Fed’s stenographer during the FOMC meetings. In 2001, the FOMC averaged 16.5 moments of guffaws per meeting. In 2006, there were, on average, 44 outbreaks of laughter, reports CNBC.

CNBC continues:

In what may be the strangest market indicator ever, a blogger found that the amount of laughter recorded in the official transcripts of Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meetings from 2000 to 2006 correlates almost perfectly with the rise in housing prices taking place at the time.

A particular series of side-splitting meetings by the central bank in 2006 marked the very top of the housing bubble.

Most telling, the Fed’s January 2006 meeting when then NY Fed president and also then-FOMC Vice Chairman Tim Geithner said to the departing Greenspan during his last FOMC meeting:

I’d like the record to show that I think you’re pretty terrific, too. [Laughter] And thinking in terms of probabilities, I think the risk that we decide in the future that you’re even better than we think is higher than the alternative.[Laughter] With that, the economy looks pretty good to us, perhaps a bit better than it did at the last meeting. With the near-term monetary policy path that’s now priced into the markets, we think the economy is likely to grow slightly above trend in ’06 and close to trend in ’07.