Thursday, May 10, 2012

The Amazing 2002 Forecasts of Ron Paul

When you understand economics and how government works, you can make some pretty awesome predictions.

In a 5 minute 2002 speech, Ron Paul tells the House speaker exactly what is going to happen (and has happened) by the end of 2012.

"I have no timetable for these predictions, but just in case, keep them around and look at them in 5-10 years. Let's hope and pray that I'm wrong on all accounts. If so, I will be very pleased."


  1. Now, you understand why the elites and the media think Ron Paul is a nut.

  2. Somewhat good on foreign policy (although the "proof" for the rebuilding Gaza/West Bank through US taxpayers showed a $900million expenditure; compared to the total size of the budget that's nothing.)

    But, there was no dollar crisis as predicted at 2:17. The crisis which did happen (although not through the channel outlined in the speech) also did not boost interest rates but put them at record lows (ironically, shown by the headline - if interest rates can only go up, they are very low). So that's two where he has been flat wrong even in the extremely vague time frame of 5-10 years.

    There also was no decimation of government finances through price inflation as forecast. At the height of the crisis (late 2008/early 09), prices fell, over the time horizon of the forecast CPI inflation was around 2%, at the announced target. No surprise, no crisis. Federal Reserve policy did not make the dollar crisis worse after the balance sheet expansion, there was no crisis beforehand anyway and the dollar has (on a trade-weighted basis) if anything appreciated.

    So pretty mixed on the economic forecasts, certainly no forecast of the housing bubble, the EU crisis and too many generalities. I am not bowled over here.

    1. "certainly no forecast of the housing bubble"

      Very, very ignorant. Must be a krugman fan to be making a comment like that!



      Note: this second link shows Paul predicting that there would be no WMDs before the Iraq war and him also stating in 2007 that Bin Laden was in Pakistan, both subjects leaving the Hillary and mccain and obama's of the world completely clueless.

      Paul predicted the Housing Bubble back when krugman was calling for a housing bubble, which he now denies doing. Krugman also predicted the stimulus attempts would work, and that commodity prices would not rise after QE2 unless demand was stimulated. Krugman also said we had to worry about deflation right now and predicted it, LOL. The best is krugman's claim that it is a "great lie" that the Fed caused the Housing bubble when he has stated multiple times it did in his own column.

      The other points as far as inflation: only bernake and krugman think we aren't experiencing inflation already. Anyone who seriously makes that claim does not eat at restaurants or shop in grocery stores. The government not counting gas and food towards inflation is about as accurate as how they measure the real unemployment rate.

      As far as interest rates, they are already on their way up. The fed keeping them down artificially has created another mini bubble that caught krugman and keynesians by surprise. As Wicksell pointed out over a century ago though, the market is going to push the interest rate to what it should be. When the govt refuses out of keynesian hard headedness, you get results like Japan. Interest rates are already back on the rise in the US market, btw.

      And when, not if, but when the US loses its reserve currency status, int rates will skyrocket as well as the already skyrocketing debt. Arab efforts to trade oil in other currencies are just the beginning of the end for the US dollar. If you don't think the govt has a revenue problem now, why is almost everyone on the left calling for raising taxes on the rich to bring in more money? Your own people destroy your arguments.

    2. The video was titled "The Amazing 2002 Forecasts". I did not find this particular ECONOMIC forecast "amazing" but rather pretty mixed for the reasons stated above. The article did not mention multiple other forecasts but was referring to these "amazing" five minutes. I argued with facts, you with some kind of conspiracy theory. If you believe that the government is systematically lying about the CPI or the PCE for political reasons, then you have left reasonable discussion.

      The PCE is the measure of prices used by the Federal Reserve, of course it includes gas and food prices reflecting household purchasing behavior. That is the inflation rate the Fed is now targeting at 2%. You don't know what you are talking about. They also look at the less volatile core index, but of course target the measure including food and gas. The CPI is calculated by the BLS, all those working there are also involved in the massive Obama/Bernanke/Krugman conspiracy, right?

      You state interest rates are on their way up, I believe that over the next year, at least, longer term interest rates will remain negative in real terms. We'll see who is right. Also, why do you complain about wrong unemployment figures (presumably unemployment is really much higher) but then just another paragraph later complain about the government creating a mini-bubble. Talk about destroying arguments.

    3. your contention : "a $ 900 million expenditure; compared to the total size of the budget that's nothing. seems to be your opinion instead of fact. You want to compare the performance of the dollar to the trade weighted average of other fiat currencies for good reason. In January of 2002 gold was $280 an ounce, oil around $16 a barrel. I howled with laughter at the suggestion that Paul didn't predict the Euro crisis. You cherry pick your "facts' and then when someone disagrees, you claimed they are beyond the boundaries of "reasonable" discussion, and drop then drop the conspiracy smear, high brow stuff. You do know that the BLS has changed the way it calculates CPI during the past decades? If you have found errors in John Williams' calculations please note them, I would be interested. Sorry, I forgot, the discussion must stick to your parameters.

  3. Anon @ 12:55 PM

    No forecast of the housing bubble? I take it you haven't read this speech yet

    All you twits don't know 1% of what Paul has been saying and why he has been saying he said, he has no time table but you haven't had a dollar crisis yet? Wanna check back in 5 years? The same things that were happening in 2002 are happening today which makes things inevitable...and his last prediction, care to refute that?

    1. This article refers to the video and calls it an "amazing" forecast, not some other speeches somewhere else, but this video. I find it fixed at best on the economic content, but certainly not "amazing". Thanks for the ad hominem attack ("twits"), it certainly makes me believe more strongly in your arguments.

      And no I don't want to check back in 5 years. Any forecast has to come with a reasonable time horizon to be of any use. Ron Paul was already extremely vague, saying basically "I don't know, 5-10 years". Otherwise, even a broken clock is right twice a day if you wait long enough.

      For the record I don't believe there will be a "dollar crisis" (what does this even mean - maybe a trade-weighted depreciation by 70%?) in the next five years, let's see who's going to be correct.

    2. Ok, so he didn't get all the 10,000 things he's been otherwise warning about into his 5 minute time limit, whoopie do! Did you read that essay, twit? Has any of your "heros" at the Fed predicted anything close to what Paul said?

      5 years is not reasonable? You must be named "minute man" by all your ladies (or men...I must be PC somewhere) needing instant gratification! If you believe the Fed's PCE estimates for inflation, why not use my "pet rock" index. The "pet rock" index says the price of pet rocks has remained unchanged for centuries. Does it mean there was no inflation over the past, I don't know, say 100 years? Do you want to hang your hat on that?

      Yes, I love insulting twits such as yourself, but that doesn't invalidate the points I raise. Must really hurt when someone who is right on an argument also loves insulting his opponent! You hang on to those green pieces of paper, you might need it as toilet paper or as your source of burning material.

  4. he made these comments before the FED illegally bailed out there buddies multiple times over, interest rates were lowered because of the fiat printing of money, thereby temporarily fixing the problem,only to ACTUALLY make it much worse!...the problem is much worse than what he is speaking on here, only because they didn't listen to him enough initially, to prevent them!