Sunday, June 17, 2012

A Very Close Race in Greece

The conservative New Democracy party is leading by just 0.5% over the left-wing SYRIZA party according to exit polls conducted by Greek media.

Exit polls show: New Democracy 27.5~30%, Syriza 27~30%, PASOK 10~12%, IndGreeks 6~7.5%, DemLeft 5.5~6.5%, Golden Dawn 6~7.5%, KKE 5~6%


  1. Standard & Poor’s said in a June 4 report that the chance of Greece leaving the euro in coming months was one-in-three. Citigroup Inc. said it maintained its 50 percent to 75 percent probability of a Greek exit over the next 18 months.

    “The durability of any new Greek government will be limited due to implementation changes, continuing public opposition to austerity and vested interest opposition to structural reforms and privatization,” Tina Fordham, senior global political analyst at Citigroup Inc. (C) in London, said in a June 15 note.

    Spain,Portugal, Greece will all do better walking away from the EU and getting their own currencies. A good insolvency is healthy, look at Russia, Argentina, Brazil in the past. Greece has defaulted only 5 times in the last 120 yrs. They have much experience at it! Short term pain for long term gain if they choose to become more productive and learn from their failures rather than trying to survive in the financial Frankenstein that the EU has become.

  2. Golden Dawn's political success is another thing to watch for in the election results.

    In May's election, they got 6.9%, with most of their support being a vote against the leading parties. However, after such a big showing (10X their usual result and more than 1/3 of the winning party's total) they were criticized heavily on the media in the run-up to this election. Recent polling showed them crashing to 3%.

    However, this exit poll shows their support to have not fallen at all. This demonstrates that there are many Greeks who support their policies, but are afraid to admit it. Since they will not be invited to any coalition and the existing alliances are in danger of falling short again, every vote they get is a vote for no government (anarchy).