I see some columnists already discussing what impact the latest economic data will have on the election. But there is still a lot of data to be released between here and the election. Given that Bernanke is now maintaining a relatively slow money growth policy, the numbers from here into the election are likely to be on the negative side for unemployment and overall economic growth. However, price inflation numbers are likely to be subdued. That said, Bernanke is a rodeo cowboy when it comes to monetary policy, so it is possible, though unlikely, that he could switch gears and start aggressively printing before the election, which could boost the manipulated economy.
Here are the key releases that will be out before the November 6 election:
October 5:
Employment Numbers
September 2012
08:30 AM
October 10:
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
October 12:
Producer Price Index
September 2012
08:30 AM
October 16:
Consumer Price Index
September 2012
08:30 AM
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
October 17:
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
October 18:
Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
Weekly Earnings of Wage and Salary Workers
Third Quarter 2012
10:00 AM
October 19
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly)
September 2012
10:00 AM
October 24:
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
FOMC Meeting Announcement
12:30 PM ET
October 25:
Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
October 26:
GDP
8:30 AM ET
October 29:
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
October 30:
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
October 31:
Employment Cost Index
Third Quarter 2012
08:30 AM
ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
November 1:
Motor Vehicle Sales
Employment Numbers
October 2012
08:30 AM
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
November 2:
Monster Employment Index
Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
November 6:
Election Day
What about crop reports?
ReplyDeleteThe most important numbers on US election day will be the number of friends, family members, and acquaintances of each person who votes, who remain unemployed or in financial distress -- and the degree to which the voter blames Obama.
ReplyDeleteAll of the "officially fudged" numbers which you list may be helpful to investors. But voters base their votes a bit closer to home, as a rule.