Via University of Virginia Center for Politics:
Obama 267
Romney 235
36 toss ups Colorado, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Needed to win 270.
In an electoral college tie: the House would select the president (Romney), but the Democrat.-controlled Senate would pick the VP (Biden).
If House was deadlocked in picking the President (won't happen), the VP (Biden) becomes President.
(ht West Wing Reports)
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474
ReplyDeleteI don't think it's dropped below 60% in weeks
Meme thread: #TheNewNixon
ReplyDeleteNixon: lawyer
Romney: lawyer
Nixon: creepy, upsetting personality
Romney: creepy, upsetting personality
Nixon: Obscure religious affiliation
Romney: Obscure religious affiliation
Nixon: ran for president after stinging loss
Romney: running for president after stinging loss
Nixon: one of five boys
Romney: has five boys
Nixon: ran for president while unemployed
Romney: running for president while unemployed
Nixon: no booze, no dancing, no swearing
Romney: no booze, no swearing
Nixon: Class resentment while in school
Romney: Class resentment while in school
Nixon: Stepford wife
Romney: Stepford wife
Nixon: conniving, two-faced tool VEEP pick
Romney: conniving, two-faced tool VEEP pick
Nixon: picked by MSM to lose in 72
Romney: picked by MSM to lose in 12
Nixon: Ran against Romney's dad
Romney: Supports Nixon's Cambodian incursion
Nixon: attacked by left for dog speech
Romney: attacked by left for dog cage
what else?
If the House of Representatives elects the President it is not by a vote of each representative, but by a vote of state delegations:
ReplyDelete"In this event, the House of Representatives is limited to choosing from among the three candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each state delegation votes en bloc - its members have a single vote collectively (and the District of Columbia does not receive a vote). A candidate must receive an absolute majority of state delegation votes (currently 26) in order for that candidate to become the President-elect. Theoretically, the 26 least populous states could vote in bloc and elect the President. Additionally, delegations from at least two-thirds of all the states must be present for voting to take place. The House continues balloting until it elects a President." (Wikipedia, Electoral College)
Did you take this into consideration when you said that the House would elect Romney?
Problem with that intrade is that it is fairly thinly traded. A couple of wealthy guys could easily throw it one way or another. Has it historically been fairly accurate this far out from an election?
ReplyDeleteHey, who cares what Intrade says? You really can't predict the future so well. Sophisticated traders use so-called prediction markets to hedge (eg. if an Obama victory will hurt you in some way, you go long his re-election, without having a precise opinion of the probability). Hedging moves the price.
ReplyDelete