Thursday, October 18, 2012

Latest Electoral Count

Via University of Virginia Center for Politics:

Obama 267

Romney 235

36 toss ups Colorado, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Needed to win 270.

In an electoral college tie: the House would select the president (Romney), but the Democrat.-controlled Senate would pick the VP (Biden).

If House was deadlocked in picking the President (won't happen), the VP (Biden) becomes President.

(ht West Wing Reports)

5 comments:

  1. http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

    I don't think it's dropped below 60% in weeks

    ReplyDelete
  2. Meme thread: #TheNewNixon

    Nixon: lawyer
    Romney: lawyer

    Nixon: creepy, upsetting personality
    Romney: creepy, upsetting personality

    Nixon: Obscure religious affiliation
    Romney: Obscure religious affiliation

    Nixon: ran for president after stinging loss
    Romney: running for president after stinging loss

    Nixon: one of five boys
    Romney: has five boys

    Nixon: ran for president while unemployed
    Romney: running for president while unemployed

    Nixon: no booze, no dancing, no swearing
    Romney: no booze, no swearing

    Nixon: Class resentment while in school
    Romney: Class resentment while in school

    Nixon: Stepford wife
    Romney: Stepford wife

    Nixon: conniving, two-faced tool VEEP pick
    Romney: conniving, two-faced tool VEEP pick

    Nixon: picked by MSM to lose in 72
    Romney: picked by MSM to lose in 12

    Nixon: Ran against Romney's dad
    Romney: Supports Nixon's Cambodian incursion

    Nixon: attacked by left for dog speech
    Romney: attacked by left for dog cage

    what else?

    ReplyDelete
  3. If the House of Representatives elects the President it is not by a vote of each representative, but by a vote of state delegations:

    "In this event, the House of Representatives is limited to choosing from among the three candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each state delegation votes en bloc - its members have a single vote collectively (and the District of Columbia does not receive a vote). A candidate must receive an absolute majority of state delegation votes (currently 26) in order for that candidate to become the President-elect. Theoretically, the 26 least populous states could vote in bloc and elect the President. Additionally, delegations from at least two-thirds of all the states must be present for voting to take place. The House continues balloting until it elects a President." (Wikipedia, Electoral College)

    Did you take this into consideration when you said that the House would elect Romney?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Problem with that intrade is that it is fairly thinly traded. A couple of wealthy guys could easily throw it one way or another. Has it historically been fairly accurate this far out from an election?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hey, who cares what Intrade says? You really can't predict the future so well. Sophisticated traders use so-called prediction markets to hedge (eg. if an Obama victory will hurt you in some way, you go long his re-election, without having a precise opinion of the probability). Hedging moves the price.

    ReplyDelete